Zia Yusuf has predicted the date of an early general election, claiming bond markets were “pricing in” Keir Starmer’s exit.
Speaking to GB News, the Reform UK Home Affairs spokesman said the British economy had gone from “awful to absolutely catastrophic”.
His comments came as Britain’s long-term Government borrowing costs surged to their highest level in 30 years this week.
The yield on 30-year gilts climbed by 0.14 percentage points to 5.798 per cent, the highest level recorded since 1998.
Bond yields move inversely to prices, meaning the Government must offer higher returns to attract buyers when yields rise.
“The reason bond markets are moving in this way is that they are now pricing very, very clearly and very materially Keir Starmer being replaced.
“Bond markets and generally bond markets are right. They’re apolitical.”
He argued that these traders “are not at all happy about what is going to come next, as awful as Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are”.
Zia Yusuf has predicted the date of an early General Election
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“They can see that what comes next is going to be mad Ed Miliband, potentially as Chancellor or Angela Rayner as Prime Minister.”
Mr Yusuf also claimed bond traders were spooked by the prospect of “Andy Burnham, who says that Britain shouldn’t care about what the people who lend money to the country to keep the lights on.”
He said: “I’m afraid as much as that might sound great if you’re 14 years old, the reality is that this country is closing in on £3 trillion of national debt.”
Despite this, the Reform Home Affairs spokesman was convinced that “the likelihood that Keir Starmer gets replaced is extremely high.”
Mr Yusuf predicted bond traders were ‘pricing in’ the exit of Sir Keir
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“As much as I’m extremely optimistic about what this country can be, I’ve got to be completely frank. I think things are going to get worse before they get better.
“I also think that the result of all of this is that the chances of a general election ahead of 2029 are much higher,” he predicted.
Explaining his conviction, Mr Yusuf said: “Bond yields are moving up; what that actually means is the creditworthiness of the United Kingdom is declining.
“It’s equivalent to having a mortgage, and if you miss a whole load of payments, you fall into financial difficulty.
The Reform UK Home Affairs spokesman said the British economy had gone from ‘awful to absolutely catastrophic’
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GETTY“When you come to renew your mortgage, your rate goes up and that creates a spiral.
“As you can imagine now, your payments for the same house or flat have gone up even more. Or if you have a car loan or anything like that.
“We are in a situation as a country where Britain’s creditworthiness is as bad as it has been in almost 30 years, and it is going to get worse.”
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, concurred that there was a political dimension to the bond market surge.
“There’s also unease ahead of the local elections, with Labour expected to take a drubbing in the polls,” she said.