While agents Intel surveyed in May were divided on how listings should be shared, they weren’t concerned about their own ability to compete.
As the real estate industry veers toward consolidation, big dominoes are falling.
First, Compass completed its merger with Anywhere — and swiftly launched new pre-marketing partnerships, provocative proposals for a national MLS, and an all-out war to wrest listings from Zillow in some markets.
But the rest of the industry hasn’t been sitting still.
The Real Brokerage announced it would be acquiring REMAX. NextHome was scooped up by eXp World Holdings. And brokerages struck a series of competing partnerships with Zillow, Realtor.com and Homes.com in response to Compass’ new initiatives.
Despite this upheaval, the latest Intel Index survey reveals that surprisingly few agents are worried that their brokerages will struggle to compete in this new environment.
Even as the question of who controls listings hangs in the balance, the survey found that agents at competitor brokerages share a similar outlook for the industry’s near-term trajectory.
Where they differ most, Intel found, is in the world they would most like to see. And agents at Real-REMAX and eXp-NextHome brokerages appear to prefer the idea of serving as a counterweight to Compass, rather than racing to pull away from smaller competitors.
Intel breaks down the full results in this week’s report.
Shared outlook, diverging hopes
For most agents, this year’s flurry of events hasn’t yet moved the needle.
The one exception? Agents at brokerages that recently consolidated in response to Compass’ growth who may still be processing the implications of what it means to compete with the industry’s newest mega-brokerage.
- 1 in 2 respondents with Real-REMAX and eXp-NextHome brokerages expressed moderate or strong concern about the recent wave of brokerage consolidation.
- Agents at each of the other brokerage classes — ranging from Compass to non-consolidated big brands and indies — only expressed this level of concern in 1 in 3 responses.
Instead, agents at Compass and non-consolidated competitors were generally more likely to say they were “slightly” or “not at all” concerned about this industry development.
This appears to be driven largely by a belief — especially among agents affiliated with big-brand brokerages — that their business model will be well positioned to compete and access listings even in a more consolidated field of competition.
- 36 percent of agent respondents said that, despite consolidation, they expect the listings landscape will remain “mostly open” over the next few years due to factors like consumer pressure, MLS coordination or regulation.
- Another 18 percent of respondents said that they expect the landscape will fragment along brokerage lines, but that their brokerage is well positioned to access inventory.
- The third-largest group, comprising 13 percent of respondents, said they expected the industry to converge on a national or interconnected listings standard that preserves board access for brokerages of all sizes.
Few agents at any brokerage class expected a fundamental break in the status quo that would benefit mega-brokerages alone.
- Only 3 percent of agent respondents said that they expected their brokerage to struggle to access enough inventory in a more fragmented landscape. This share was highest among indie agents, but still only added up to 7 percent of that group.
- Another 7 percent of agents said that they expected mega-brokerages would begin to dominate and force indie brokerages into tough decisions about consolidating, partnering or exiting.
While these concerns were real, the overall picture suggests the industry doesn’t expect this wave of consolidation to place smaller brokerages at a disadvantage.
In many of these areas, agents largely agreed about the competitive landscape, regardless of whether their brokerage was an indie operation or affiliated with Compass or another recently consolidated brokerage.
But where they did diverge most is where they wanted to see the industry go next. And in this question, agents at consolidating brokerages like Real-REMAX and eXp-NextHome share an outlook closer to that of their non-consolidated and indie rivals than with their Compass counterparts.
- 56 percent of Compass agents surveyed by Intel said that they preferred to see existing MLSs open their subscriptions nationwide in partnership with major brokerages — the exact model that MRED and others have pursued with Compass in recent weeks.
- Only 15 percent of Compass respondents said they hoped local MLSs would continue to govern listings in their traditional regional boundaries, with no significant national expansion.
Meanwhile, the share of agents who supported the nationwide expansion of MLSs was much smaller at non-Compass brokerages — including those that recently announced merger plans.
- A mere 31 percent of agent respondents with Real-REMAX or eXp-NextHome preferred the national MLS approach.
- That share was even smaller for agents with big brokerage brands that had not recently consolidated (22 percent) and indie operations (19 percent).
Meanwhile, even agents at other consolidating brokerages were more than twice as likely as Compass agents to prefer a model where MLSs continued to govern listings at the local level, with no national expansion.
A slow start for pre-marketing partnerships
Despite the newly announced pre-marketing partnerships, most agents have yet to see this listing strategy take hold with their clients.
- Fewer than 1 in 25 agent respondents at non-Compass brokerages said their clients “frequently” raise the topic of private listings, coming-soons or pre-market exclusives.
Even for most Compass agents, it’s still a rarity. But a significant minority of Compass agents report these methods continue to gain steam in a way that agents at other brokerages aren’t seeing.
- Just under 1 in 7 agent respondents at Compass-owned brokerages and brands said that their clients frequently ask about pre-marketing and similar opportunities.
While this group is three times as large among Compass agents than among Compass competitors, it’s still a minority.
- Many Compass agents — 38 percent of respondents from this group — reported that their clients in the last three months had “never” raised the prospect of a pre-market or off-MLS listing.
- That share is even higher among other agent groups, with 54 percent of respondents at Real-REMAX or eXp-NextHome saying their clients “never” bring up pre-marketing, and 49 percent of respondents at indie shops saying the same.
The remaining agents said their clients only bring up the topic occasionally or rarely. As time goes on, use of these platforms may grow. But for now, they haven’t seemed to get off to a fast start.
Intel will continue to monitor these trends in the months to come.
Methodology notes: This month’s Inman Intel Index survey ran from May 19-28 and received 469 responses. The entire Inman reader community was invited to participate, and a rotating, randomized selection of community members was prompted to participate by email. Users responded to a series of questions related to their self-identified corner of the real estate industry — including real estate agents, brokerage leaders, lenders and proptech entrepreneurs. Results reflect the opinions of the engaged Inman community, which may not always match those of the broader real estate industry. This survey is conducted monthly.