COT Report 40 highlights a week of notable positioning changes across two platinum-group metals — with the euro’s rare extreme adding broader context for commodity traders.
Two markets that don’t always move in tandem caught my attention in this week’s Commitments of Traders report: platinum and palladium. Both showed larger-than-average weekly changes in Commercials’ net positions, and both are backed by supportive ICOT scores readings. On top of that, the euro — which matters to anyone trading dollar-denominated commodities — has reached a multi-year COT extreme that’s worth examining carefully.
This is Report 40, and I’m analyzing futures and options combined data, net positions, using the classic COT report format.
Platinum positioning changes support a near term rise
Platinum recorded a 26% change in Commercials’ net positions this week. That’s clearly larger than average, and while similar-sized changes have appeared in the past on this chart, the current reading is directionally meaningful — particularly when viewed alongside the ICOT scores, which are supporting rising prices.
Zooming out to the 5-year chart, the stress picture is more measured. Positioning is leaning toward the bullish side on a one-year to eighteen-month view, but it hasn’t reached the kind of historically extreme levels that would make this a standout long-term contrarian signal.
For that reason, I’d place more weight on the change signal and the ICOT scores here than on the broader positioning extreme. If you’re trading platinum, the near-term picture looks supportive heading into early next week.
Palladium shows a bullish extreme as downside risk persists
Palladium’s weekly change came in at 20%, and the picture there is a bit more nuanced. The Commercials’ positioning shift is clearly visible on the chart and is being supported by ICOT scores. What makes palladium more interesting to me right now is the broader context: on the 5-year chart, palladium is sitting at a bullish COT extreme.
The five-year chart shows rising positioning stress following a bearish COT extreme in early 2026, which offered a defensive signal for anyone who was long the market. Now the situation has reversed, and we’re looking at a market where positioning suggests a potential bottom could be forming.
That said, I want to be careful about how I frame this. A bullish COT extreme doesn’t automatically mean the market turns tomorrow.
The extreme could widen further before price responds, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see continued downside pressure in the short run. The stress level has been rising, and ICOT scores remaining elevated may simply reflect a trend that isn’t finished yet. What the current larger-than-average change signal does suggest is a potential for a near-term bounce — not necessarily a confirmed reversal.
Euro positioning adds context without confirming a metals reversal
For commodity traders, currency positioning matters. In my view, a potential euro recovery against the dollar is relevant context when assessing dollar-denominated metals, though it does not confirm a bullish metals outlook.
Large Speculators in the euro have reached a 343-report extreme. Commercials have reached a 510-report extreme. These are not small readings — they represent some of the most stretched positioning levels in many years for these groups. The data suggests the euro could be approaching a meaningful bottom against the dollar, though the exact timing remains uncertain.
My interpretation is that the euro is likely to find its floor sometime in the months ahead, potentially extending into early next year if the COT extreme continues to widen before it resolves. A widening extreme would, in my view, make the eventual long setup more compelling rather than less — it would represent even greater positioning stress, though price confirmation would still be needed.
I’d also note that from a traditional technical standpoint, there’s a level nearby — a former resistance zone that has since been breached — that could act as a support now. COT analysis works best when paired with price structure, and that level is worth keeping an eye on as a potential area where the decline could stall.
Price follow through will determine whether the signals develop
Three markets, three different stories — but they share a common thread this week. Platinum and palladium are both showing positioning changes that tilt near-term in the bullish direction, with palladium carrying the additional weight of a 5-year COT extreme. The euro’s rare multi-year extreme adds a macro backdrop that could eventually support dollar-denominated metals if a currency shift materializes.
None of this is confirmation of a reversal. Palladium’s downtrend may not be finished, the euro’s bottom may still be weeks or months away, and platinum’s change signal still needs price to follow through. But the COT data right now is flagging these three markets as ones that deserve close attention in the sessions ahead.
Watch the full COT analysis for Report 40 of 2026, including the chart walkthroughs and ICOT score detail, at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IU_CQqVSu5I
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