Gold Price Prediction: Can Gold Break $4,220 to Rally Towards $4,640? (IANS)
New Delhi: Gold traded near $4,060 per ounce on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve kept its key rate unchanged at about 3.9 per cent despite stubbornly high inflation. Gold absorbed Fed hawkishness and crude oil shock as purchases by the Central Banks and ETF inflows set the stage for the next rally.
Rising crude oil prices, stronger bond yields, inflation concerns, and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy stance failed to deter the Yellow metal as it continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. In October so far, Gold has hovered between $3,975 and $4,225 per ounce.
Ajay Kedia, the founder of Kedia Advisory Group, suggested that the market is gradually absorbing negative developments rather than witnessing aggressive liquidation.
Even the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at 3.75–4.00%, alongside expectations of further tightening, failed to trigger sustained selling. This indicates that much of the negative news may already be priced in, the Commodity expert said.
Gold is getting fundamental support as central banks continue to buy the Yellow metal, demand rises in China and India, ETF inflows increase, mining costs rise, and geopolitical uncertainty grows amid the West Asia crisis. Globally, investors pumped in around $10 billion to purchase ETFs in September, while central banks purchased 39 tonnes in August, highlighting sustained institutional interest.
Past records show that when crude oil prices remained above $100, it put pressure on gold through higher inflation and interest-rate expectations, as witnessed in 2008 and 2022. With Brent trading above $110, energy-driven inflation remains a major obstacle to gold’s recovery. However, any meaningful correction in crude could ease inflationary pressure and revive expectations of monetary easing, Kedia said.
Giving the future outlook for Gold, Kedia said, “Technically, $4,220 represents the decisive breakout level. A sustained move above this resistance could signal the end of consolidation and initiate a fresh bullish rally towards $4,640*, representing approximately 10% upside. On the downside, $3,975 remains immediate support, followed by the crucial $3,900 level. In an extreme bearish scenario, $3,820 could emerge as the next major support zone.”
Our outlook remains consolidation with a bullish bias. Gold appears to have absorbed much of the negative news and could be preparing for its next major upward move. Easing crude oil prices, declining bond yields or a shift in Federal Reserve expectations could provide the much-awaited positive trigger, the expert added.
Gold Prices Around 13 US Elections: 2000-2024
| Election | Type | 1M before ($/oz) | Election day ($/oz) | 1M after ($/oz) | Post-election return |
| 2000 | Presidential | $270 | $265 | $271 | 0.0226 |
| 2002 | Midterm | $320 | $318 | $325 | 0.022 |
| 2004 | Presidential | $418 | $428 | $453 | 0.0584 |
| 2006 | Midterm | $575 | $625 | $635 | 0.016 |
| 2008 | Presidential | $865 | $740 | $775 | 0.0473 |
| 2010 | Midterm | $1,315 | $1,356 | $1,385 | 0.0214 |
| 2012 | Presidential | $1,780 | $1,717 | $1,695 | −1.28% |
| 2014 | Midterm | $1,208 | $1,167 | $1,205 | 0.0325 |
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