Olympic Swimming Predictions, Day 3: Summer McIntosh, David Popovici Favored to Reach Gold-Medal Podium
After one hundred years, the world’s premier sporting event returns to Paris. The 2024 Summer Olympics will begin July 26, and there will be 329 events in 32 sports, with roughly 10,500 athletes from 184 countries. This year’s Games mark the third time that Paris will have hosted the event, becoming only the second city to do so. Swimming’s 35 pool events will begin on Saturday, July 27, and will continue for nine days through Aug. 4 at the Paris La Défense Arena. Following is how Swimming World sees the action unfolding.
WOMEN’S 400 INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY
Summer McIntosh could win Olympic gold in the 400 freestyle, but if not, her first time atop the medal stand will surely come in the 400 IM, an event in which McIntosh is a two-time world champion and the world record holder, having clocked a time of 4:24.38 in May that is two seconds quicker than any other swimmer in history.
Only one other swimmer in Paris has ever broken 4:30—Australia’s Kaylee McKeown, but McKeown plans to skip the longer medley. Thus, the second-fastest best time in the race (4:31.41 from Fukuoka) belongs to American Katie Grimes, who won silver at Worlds in both 2022 and 2023. Freya Colbert was the world champion this year, while Israel’s Anastasia Gorbenko has made huge strides in 2024. Hungary’s Vivien Jackl, Japan’s Mio Narita and the USA’s Emma Weyant, the silver medalist four years ago, should all contend.
World Record: 4:24.38 Summer McIntosh, CAN (Toronto 5-16-24)
2024 World Rankings:
4:24.38 1. Summer McIntosh, CAN (5-16)
4:28.22 2. Kaylee McKeown, AUS (4-18)
4:34.01 3. Freya Colbert, GBR (4-4)
4:34.87 4. Anastasia Gorbenko, ISR (6-1)
4:34.96 5. Vivien Jackl, HUN (4-11)
Team USA:
4:35.00 6. Katie Grimes (6-17)
4:35.56 8. Emma Weyant (6-17)
Gold: Summer McIntosh, Canada
Silver: Katie Grimes, USA
Bronze: Anastasia Gorbenko, Israel
MEN’S 200 FREESTYLE
David Popovici — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
Two years ago, David Popovici became the first swimmer since the ban on full-body polyurethane suits to break 1:43 in the 200 freestyle. He also broke a long-standing 100 free world record in 2022. After a down 2023, Popovici is back, having clocked 1:43.13 at the European Championships to sit one second clear of the rest of the world.
Meanwhile, it could take sub-1:45 just to make the final in Paris. Great Britain’s Matt Richards won the world title in the event last year, and he will be joined by Duncan Scott, who locked defending gold medalist Tom Dean out of the event this year. South Korea’s Hwang Sunwoo has become a podium regular, and Germany’s Lukas Martens will try to extend his freestyle skills down to the 200. American Luke Hobson is a wild card.
World Record: 1:42.00 Paul Biedermann, GER (Rome 7-28-09)
2024 World Rankings:
1:43.13 1. David Popovici, ROU (6-21)
1:44.14 2. Lukas Martens, GER (4-27)
1:44.69 3. Matthew Richards, GBR (4-7)
1:44.75 4. Duncan Scott, GBR (4-7)
1:44.75 4. Hwang Sunwoo, KOR (2-13)
Team USA:
1:44.89 6. Luke Hobson (6-17)
1:45.38 11. Chris Guiliano (6-17)
Gold: David Popovici, Romania
Silver: Matt Richards, Great Britain
Bronze: Hwang Sunwoo, South Korea
MEN’S 100 BACKSTROKE
Thomas Ceccon stole the world record away from Ryan Murphy at the 2022 World Championships, but Murphy came back one year later to nip the Italian for the world title. With Russian swimmers largely banned from competing in Paris, Murphy will be the only swimmer in the field to have ever won an Olympic medal, having taken bronze in 2021 after a gold in 2016.
Those two are the headliners while Hunter Armstrong, Murphy’s fellow American, was the bronze medalist at Worlds in 2022 and 2023 before winning a watered-down global final in February. Apostolos Christou blasted a time of 52.23 at the recent European Championships, and China’s Xu Jiayu, the world champ in 2017 and 2019, cannot be forgotten. Spain’s Hugo Gonzalez is better at the 200 back, but a potential finalist here.
World Record: 51.60 Thomas Ceccon, ITA (Budapest 6-20-22)
2024 World Rankings:
52.23 2. Apostolos Christou, GRE (6-23)
52.34 3. Miron Lifintsev, RUS (4-15)
52.39 4. Xu Jiayu, CHN (4-21)
52.43 5. Thomas Ceccon, ITA (6-21)
52.70 7. Oliver Morgan, GBR (4-3)
52.70 7. Hugo Gonzalez, ESP (2-13)
Team USA:
52.22 1. Ryan Murphy, USA (6-17)
52.68 6. Hunter Armstrong (2-13)
Gold: Ryan Murphy, USA
Silver: Thomas Ceccon, Italy
Bronze: Hunter Armstrong, USA
WOMEN’S 100 BREASTSTROKE
Big names such as Yuliya Efimova and Lydia Jacoby, the defending Olympic champion, did not make the cut for Paris, but Lilly King is back and aiming to reclaim the gold medal she first won in 2016. King remains the world record holder, but China’s Tang Qianting nearly swiped the mark when she clocked 1:04.39 earlier this year to establish herself as gold-medal favorite.
Ruta Meilutyte, the Lithuanian swimmer who won Olympic gold in 2012, made a triumphant return to gold-medal status with a world title in 2023, but she has struggled so far in 2024. South Africa’s Tatjana Smith (née Schoenmaker) is looking strong to return to the Olympic podium in the event, while Italy’s Benedetta Pilato is looking for her first Olympic medal after winning the world title in 2022. Veterans Reona Aoki, Tes Schouten and Sophie Hansson will contend as well.
World Record: 1:04.13 Lilly King, USA (Budapest 7-25-17)
2024 World Rankings:
1:04.39as 1. Tang Qianting, CHN (4-21)
1:05.11 2. Evgeniia Chikunova, RUS (4-17)
1:05.41p 3. Tatjana (Schoenmaker) Smith, RSA (4-12)
1:05.44 5. Benedetta Pilato, ITA (6-21)
1:05.54 6. Angharad Evans, GBR (5-26)
Team USA:
1:05.43 4. Lilly King (6-17)
1:06.10 15. Emma Weber (6-17)
Gold: Tang Qianting, China
Silver: Lilly King, USA
Bronze: Tatjana Smith, South Africa
WOMEN’S 200 FREESTYLE
Australia will be heavily favored for a 1-2 finish here after Ariarne Titmus and Mollie O’Callaghan each swam under the previous world record at the country’s Olympic Trials last month. O’Callaghan had broken Federica Pellegrini’s mark (1:52.98) that stood for 14 years with a 1:52.85 at the 2023 Worlds before Titmus snatched it away from her Aussie teammate, clocking 1:52.23 in June. These women could become the first to go 1:51 in the event in Paris.
Hong Kong’s Siobhan Haughey was the silver medalist behind Titmus three years ago, and she won the world title in Doha earlier this year. Katie Ledecky, the 2016 Olympic champion, and Summer McIntosh, last year’s World Championships bronze medalist, have both opted out of this race to focus on other events, so China’s Yang Junxuan, the 2022 world champion, could contend for a medal.
World Record: 1:52.23 Ariarne Titmus, AUS (Brisbane 6-12-24)
2024 World Rankings:
1:52.23 1. Ariarne Titmus, AUS (6-12)
1:52.48 2. Mollie O’Callaghan, AUS (6-12)
1:53.69 3. Summer McIntosh, CAN (5-14)
1:54.37 4. Yang Junxuan, CHN (4-21)
1:54.52 5. Siobhan Haughey, HKG (4-12)
Team USA:
1:55.86sf 12. Claire Weinstein (6-16)
1:56.53sf 21. Erin Gemmell (6-16)
Gold: Mollie O’Callaghan, Australia
Silver: Ariarne Titmus, Australia
Bronze: Siobhan Haughey, Hong Kong