Gold has had two major peaks in the past 50 years — in 1979, and 2011 — but 2024 just joined the club after gold recently broke through a trend line connecting the two previous tops 32 years apart.
historical trendline recently broken 45 years after the 1979 peak (credit: PR)
The central question is whether that milestone is bearish or bullish. While conventional wisdom suggests a linear chart is hardly conclusive evidence of any one-directional move, let’s compare the world economies in 1979 and 2011 to gain insight into gold’s next move.
1979 Events
The year is 1979. The USSR had just invaded Afghanistan, Margaret Thatcher had been elected prime minister, and the U.S. was experiencing its first nuclear accident at Three Mile Island.
More importantly, inflation is at an unprecedented 11% year-over-year, and the unemployment rate is nearly 6%. That sounds worse than the post-COVID-19 economy — and certainly was — at least until Paul Volcker stepped in.
The newly named Federal Reserve chairman showed himself to be the hawk of all hawks. He saw the economic issues and said there was only one way to fix them—pain.
The federal funds rate hit a peak of 20% in June 1981. Understandably, gold prices plummeted from the top and never reached the same level until 32 years later, in 2011, after Volcker’s drastic moves.
Fed key interest rate through history (credit: PR)
2011 Events
While the 1979 inflation event was spurred by an energy crisis stemming from the Middle East, gold’s spike in 2011 can be attributed to one major factor — the bad behavior of global banks — and several minor contributors.
Gold became the most sensible alternative after the U.S. government decided to save most banks from bankruptcy by using taxpayer money to offer bailouts. The situation the U.S. government was entering was unprecedented. Not many economists knew precisely what the effects would be, so naturally, investors turned to the safe-haven asset of gold.
In August 2011, gold reached a price of more than $1,900 an ounce before it began its downward trend away from the all-time high.
The U.S. government’s policy of bailing out the banks provided short-term worry that boosted gold, but as years went on and the practice proved to be successful, gold’s price began steadily dropping as the prospect of a global financial collapse subsided.
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What’s different now?
The main difference in gold’s massive move upward now compared to the two previous rises is obvious — no significant or cataclysmic event is causing the move up. Sure, inflation is real, but nowhere near the levels seen in 1979, and there aren’t many people out there right now calling for the entire financial system to collapse.
Both drops from the peak in 1979 and 2011 were relatively quick and violent, giving retail investors little time to react, but because of the more laid-back nature of gold’s rise this time around, that’s unlikely to reoccur.
While short-term corrections are always possible, there is little to suggest gold won’t continue its momentum this time as the Federal Reserve hints at easing monetary policy.
This article is for informational purposes only. The opinions and analysis herein are those of the author and are not financial advice. The Jerusalem Post (JPost.com) does not endorse or recommend any investments based on this information. Investors should consider their financial situation, investment goals, and risk tolerance before making any decisions. Consulting a qualified financial advisor is recommended. JPost.com is not liable for any investment losses from using this information. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as trading or investment advice.
