Gold confirmed its new bull market. That’s the conclusion from the 10-year gold price chart. The gold chart over 10 years requires chart annotations though.
This article provides gold’s 10-year chart with our chart annotations to help readers understand the message of the chart – it’s a bullish message.
What do you see?
Here are a few answers from regular readers without lots of charting experience:
- The long term gold chart looks good because its price is rising.
- It was a very tough 10-year period for gold.
- Gold has barely moved in recent years.
- It looks like gold is topping now.
All these answers are not wrong.
The simply miss the bigger picture.
The most important insight from the 10-year gold price chart can be derived from the gold chart with annotations, see below.
One of the best practices of reading charts is the top down approach – start with a higher timeframe.
When applying to the gold chart, we believe the big picture timeframe is the 50 year gold chart shown below.
That’s where big picture (dominant) chart patterns become visible. What do we see?
- A falling wedge that took 20 years to complete (1980-2001).
- A secular uptrend (2001-2011).
- A consolidation in the form of a cup and handle formation that took 10 years to complete (2013-2023).
The latter is the important insight to take into account when analyzing the 10-year gold price chart.
It took the gold market exactly 10 years to complete a chart formation, a basing pattern:
- This period has felt very uncertain to most gold investors.
- The broader investor public did challenge the gold thesis.
- However, the long term gold chart was very clear.
That’s why chart pattern and accurate chart readings are so important – the break through the noise. Moreover, it’s only long term charts that can offer valuable insights. In a world focused on short term gold changes (here is an illustration) it is challenging to see the big picture clearly.
The reason we started analyzing the historical gold chart (above) is to find the dominant pattern on the 10-year gold chart.
Strictly speaking, the 10-year chart goes back to 2014. That’s the problem.
The dominant pattern, cup and handle formation, a bullish one, started in December of 2012. A regular 10-year gold chart would not capture the ultra bullish chart pattern.
That said, it is clear from our chart annotations how gold required 10 years to complete a long term chart pattern. It’s a bullish pattern.
A few notes from gold’s 10-year chart:
- The pullback with mid-point 2015 was deep. This resulted in a powerful bullish reversal.
- It took gold 8 years to get back to the initial level from back in 2012.
- The 3-year consolidation since 2020 created a solid support structure – it felt uncertain for sure.
The above points contribute to the powerful nature of the subsequent breakout.
Consequently, the breakout that occurred in 2024 is a bullish secular breakout.
While gold may retrace, re-test its breakout level around $2,100, it is likely going to qualify as a bullish back-test.
One often overlooked dynamic are the short term cycles.
They can help investors tremendously;
As seen on this 10-year gold chart, we annotated the quarterly cycles with boxes.
Why this matters? The quarterly cycles help us understand turning points, trend changes, which comes with crucial information for investors.
Again, these quarterly cycles are not available on regular gold charts, also not visible to regular readers.
That’s why we include these quarterly cycles as the cornerstone of our weekly gold & silver chart readings which we offer in our premium gold & silver market reports.
While the 10-year gold chart may look very exciting at first glance, the reality is that it has a treasure of insights.
The point is this – charts without annotations are mostly noisy.
Certainly a volatile market like gold requires decent chart annotations.
That said, the key findings from gold’s 10-year chart:
- A bullish long term pattern concluded in 2023 (arguably, early 2024).
- This bullish pattern is called a ‘cup and handle’.
- The breakout of 2024 is ‘the real deal’.
- While gold may re-test its breakout level, somewhere in 2024, it is clearly set to move higher in 2025 and beyond.
Charts don’t lie.
The 10-year gold price chart does not lie.
Gold has a bullish long term setup.