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July 18, 2024
PI Global Investments

ANZ have raised their end of year gold forecast to $2,300, from $2,200

On the technicals, ANZ note the recent high around $2,195 as resistance:

  • a break of this resistance targets above $2,200

ANZ are wary of a correction first through, “a healthy price correction looks in the offing:”, citing:

  • RSI suggests an overbought level
  • If a correction starts, the price could fall back to the key support level of $2,100

Further ahead, and more leaning fundamental than technical.

Bullish factors include:

  • “While speculators have increased their bullish bets recently, positions are not matching the intensity of the latest price rally,”
  • “Moreover, disinvestment in gold-backed Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has been continuing. A lean level of investment in gold should be seen as a potential driver. This not only limits scope for a heavy liquidation but also leaves ample room for fresh buying.”
  • rising uncertainties on the economic outlook and geopolitics
  • central banks continue to buy

ANZ cautions that higher prices could weigh on physical demand

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