The gold price experienced a strong increase in the last session of the first quarter of 2024. The gold price rose to new record highs, above $2200 per ounce. However, from the perspective of the current year, the price rally do not look so impressive, as it has been in consolidation since December, which was broken out at the beginning of March. Since the beginning of this year, gold has gained around 7%, and from a 12-month perspective, it is a 10% increase.
The opening of the new week, month and quarter is very optimistic. Gold opens with a bullish gap and continues to move upwards. From a daily perspective, gold is gaining 1.3% and is rising in today’s session to as high as $2165 per ounce which is a new all-time high. Gold today breaks above the short-term rising trend channel and the long-term rising trend channel. Moreover, the 161.8 external retracement has been broken. It is worth noting that the seasonality indicator suggests increases until April 9/10 before a later consolidation. It is worth noting that the positioning of speculators is relatively high from a one-year perspective, but at the same time it is not high from a historical perspective. This means that in the longer term, speculators may continue to bet on gold increases.
The increases in the gold market are driven by speculation about the timing of the first interest rate cut in the United States. The PCE inflation for February came out more or less in line with expectations and according to Powell was a good sign, although the Fed still needs more signs that inflation is heading towards its target. The probability of a rate cut in June is estimated by the market at 65%.
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