- Gold futures were little changed ahead of two crucial inflation reports later this week.
- Overall, financial markets have been paying close attention to the language expressed during US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s visit to Capitol Hill to determine any hint of when officials might cut US interest rates.
- According to gold trading platforms, prices rose towards the $2,385 per ounce level, recovering from recent losses that pushed gold towards the $2,349 per ounce support level.
- Recently, gold rose by about 1% last week, and is up more than 14% year-to-date.
In the same performance, silver prices, which is gold’s sister commodity, rose above $31 per ounce. Overall, white metal advanced by 4% last week, adding to its gains since the beginning of the year by 29%.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee and warned that keeping U.S. interest rates too high for too long could threaten the outlook for economic growth. Powell noted that cutting rates too early could also threaten the central bank’s work. “At the same time, given the progress we’ve made in reducing inflation and cooling the labor market over the past two years, high inflation is not the only risk we face,” he said in prepared remarks. Furthermore, reducing policy restrictions too late or too little could unnecessarily weaken economic activity and employment.
Despite the weak f
irst-quarter inflation data, the Fed has seen two straight months of “really good” inflation reports. “After not making progress toward our 2 percent inflation goal in the first part of this year, recent monthly readings have shown modest progress,” Powell added. “More good data would bolster our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
On Thursday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to fall further to 3.1%, while the core CPI, which excludes the volatile energy and food components, is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%. Producer prices are expected to have risen 0.1% last month.
As for the fundamentals that influence gold prices, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.14% to 105.15, from the opening at 105.00. The index, which measures the US dollar against a basket of other major currencies, has risen 3.8% since the beginning of 2024. As is well known, a stronger US dollar is bad for dollar-denominated commodities because it makes them more expensive for foreign investors to buy.
Another factor affecting the gold market, US Treasury yields have mostly risen across the board. According to trading, the yield on the 10-year note rose 4.5 basis points to 4.313%. The yield on two-year bonds exceeded 4.64%, while the yield on 30-year bonds exceeded 4.5%.
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
According to the performance on the daily chart below, the stability of the gold price around the current resistance level of $2385 per ounce will support the bulls’ rapid move to the psychological resistance level of $2400 per ounce, especially if today’s US inflation figures come in below all expectations and if global geopolitical tensions increase. Moreover, we still prefer to buy gold from every downward level. Ultimately, the most suitable buying opportunities according to recent trading are the levels of $2349 and $2330 per ounce, respectively.
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