(Kitco Commentary) – On Wednesday I wrote that I expected gold to hit the 2050/55 price with a touch of the top Bollinger band; that occurred in overnight trading. Whether bulls will successfully hold the breakout however remains to be seen; updated daily chart below.
Note the relative strength oscillator in a stretched position. Bulls want it to stay that way, such as in the period from mid-October to early November 2023. Again, to me bulls should get the benefit of doubt till proven otherwise.
I mentioned the macro-economic and social political environment as adding weight to the bullish case for gold. Another chart that looks primed to move on a catalyst (yet unknown), in my opinion is oil. WTI on the weekly chart below, looks just about ready to break out above $80 in my opinion. If bulls can get price into the yellow box, then the probability becomes a move all the way to the top, with a target of 95.
Of course, the stock market continues to be resilient. As I mentioned Wednesday, my expectation is for a correction, but let me clarify that I would under no circumstances take an active short position against indices, that is, until the FED clearly signals a cut, with commensurate odds signaling it as a done deal.
The flip in monetary policy from where we are now, to easing, I think is shaping up to be an EPIC sell the news event.
Thanks and have a nice weekend.
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