Chennai: The gold market is still not saturated and could see another leg up in the second half of 2024 as lower interest rates, recession risks and geopolitics may lure the investors back, finds the World Gold Council.
Gold ETFs in the western markets have seen net outflows year to date, and retail demand also has been soft. Even with Western investors not showing up in full force, gold’s strong performance in H1 2024 suggests that the market is still not saturated and could see another leg up in H2. Lower interest rates, recession risks and geopolitics may lure them back, said Juan Carlos Artigas, Global Head of Research, World Gold Council.
Despite high interest rates and a strong US dollar, gold has been comfortably trading above $2,300/oz for most of Q2. The metal prices are up 12 per cent year-to-date. Despite some recent deceleration in purchases, WGC’s Central Bank Survey indicates that there is widespread interest in gold by central banks and they will continue to see reserves growing.
Overall, the extent of gold’s reaction upwards or downwards will be a function of the magnitude by which each of the factors, including interest rates, recession risks, geopolitics, investor profit taking, and central bank demand.
According to WGC, the global economy, as well as gold, seem to be waiting for a catalyst.
“Like the global economy, gold appears to be waiting for a catalyst. This may come in the form of Western investment flows as interest rates fall or risk metrics increase. And while its outlook is not without challenges, there is a growing appetite for gold in asset allocation strategies,” said Artigas.