Potential signal:
- At this point, it’s very possible that gold could be offering a bit of value. Any short-term pullback is a buying opportunity, and I am already long.
- On the other hand, if we break above the $2335 level, then it’s likely that we go looking to the $2400 level above.
- Either way, as long as we can stay above the $2280 level, I think you get a situation where the market is supported enough that you continue to look to the upside.
It’s obvious that the gold market is lacking a significant amount of momentum, and therefore I think this is a market that will continue to be somewhat “ho-hum.” However, there is a significant amount of support underneath to keep this market somewhat afloat.
Keep in mind that it’s the middle of summer, and of course the futures markets will have to deal with the idea that the United States will be celebrating Independence Day on Thursday. This will have a massive effect on liquidity, and that of course will have a major effect on price action. That being said, there are longer term trends to pay attention to, and I think that gold has a whole plethora of reasons to get this things moving.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is rather bullish, but I also recognize that we are somewhat sideways at the moment. The 50-Day EMA continues to offer support, but I also believe that the $2300 level is an area that we need to pay close attention to. If we were to break down below there, then the $2280 level is a significant support level as well. In fact, I would say that there is a significant amount of support in that entire zone between those 2 levels.
On the upside, I see the $2360 level as a potential resistance barrier, and if we can break above there it’s likely that we could go looking to the $2400 level. When you look at the recent action, it’s obvious that we have been working off some of the froth from the big move higher, which does make a certain amount of sense as gold doesn’t typically run straight up in the air for very long. Furthermore, lack of liquidity is going to be an issue, and of course there are plenty of narratives out there to keep people confused.
Geopolitics certainly do favor the gold market rallying, and I think that is probably reason enough to be a buyer. However, it’s also possible the central banks around the world will continue to cut rates, and that also works in favor of the gold market.
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