Key Economic Indicators
Traders are focusing on Thursday’s second-quarter GDP report and Friday’s June personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data. These reports are expected to provide insights into future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.
The PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, could significantly influence guidance issued at next week’s Fed meeting. While no rate cut is expected, markets anticipate clues about potential future monetary policy easing.
Market Expectations
Traders currently price in a high probability of the first interest rate cut occurring in September. However, uncertainty persists regarding additional cuts this year.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently suggested the central bank might not wait for inflation to reach 2% before cutting rates. This statement has further fueled market speculation about the timing and frequency of potential rate cuts.
Goldman Sachs Bullish on Gold
Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing potential Fed rate cuts and strong Chinese demand as key drivers. The bank forecasts gold prices to reach $2,700 by 2025, a 12% increase from current levels.
China’s central bank has been aggressively purchasing gold, driven by concerns about US financial sanctions and sovereign debt sustainability. This trend, combined with structural changes in the Chinese market, is creating what Goldman Sachs describes as an “unshakeable bull market” for gold in China.