prices have been on a tear over the last two months, a development that has caught many by surprise. After a slight rise towards the later months of 2023, the precious metal has surged since mid-February, defying some earlier predictions of a cool-off.
This year has seen gold surge past the key psychological barrier of $2,000 an ounce, and it shows no signs of slowing down. With no signs of a slowdown, gold’s impressive rally has forced financial institutions to re-evaluate their outlooks. The latest revision comes from a heavyweight in the financial world – Goldman Sachs – and their new forecast suggests even brighter days ahead for the gleaming metal.
Goldman raises forecast for gold prices
In a note to clients this week, the investment bank noted that gold’s relative stability after this week’s stronger-than-expected US CPI print was yet another demonstration that the metal’s bull market is not being driven by the usual macro suspects. This, along with other factors, has led to Goldman Sachs’ decision to raise its forecast for gold prices.
Indeed, despite the market pricing progressively fewer Fed cuts, stronger growth trends, and record equity markets, gold has rallied 20% over the past two months.
“The traditional fair value of gold would connect the usual catalysts – real rates, growth expectations and the dollar – to flows and the price,” wrote the bank. “None of those traditional factors adequately explain the velocity and scale of the gold price move so far this year. Yet that substantial residual from the traditional gold price model is neither a new feature nor a sign of overvaluation.”
It’s seen that the majority of the gold upside since mid-2022 has been driven by new incremental (physical) factors, not least a significant acceleration in emerging markets Central Bank accumulation as well as Asian retail buying.
Those factors remain well affirmed by current macro policy and geopolitics, according to Goldman Sachs.
“Moreover, with Fed cuts still a likely catalyst to soften the ETF headwind later in the year, and right tail risk from the US election cycle and fiscal setting, gold’s bullish skew remains clear,” they argue.
From the rebased price level, and with the firm seeing positive price factors still playing out ahead, they upgraded their price forecast to $2,700 per ounce by the year-end compared to the previous expectation of $2,300 per ounce.