How Low Could Gold Go This Week?

Gold

Gold () unexpectedly collapsed last week after making a new all-time high. There was no indication from the short-term or the daily chart that the correction was about to occur and I do not believe it was all down to a stronger PMI number when the dollar did not climb significantly against other currencies.

1. As I warned, a close last week below the previous week’s low of 2332 leaves an important bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart. (When a new all-time high is reached and the price then collapses below the previous candle low, creating a bull trap, when longs are holding losing positions). Although we closed a point above 2332, it still qualifies as a bearish engulfing candle in my view. (See chart).

2. Although I will not take this as an immediate sell signal, it is a warning to bulls that the bull run may be over at this stage. It could mean we consolidate in a sideways channel, but it does not necessarily mean prices are about to collapse, although I would not be surprised to see us drift lower to 2310/00 at the start of this week. I then need to see what pattern develops.

3. Just 1 thing to note, I think last week’s high is too far above the April high for a double-top pattern to be relevant. So it’s not as negative as it could have been.

4. On Friday I thought we could see a recovery and I wrote: Gains could be limited, with nervous short-term bulls trapped in some losses,  so a high for the day around 2350/55 is possible. However, we only made it as far as 2347.

Silver

1. Silver () collapsed through my buying opportunity at 3100/3080 with stops triggered below 3050.
   The break lower signaled a slide as far as a buying opportunity at 3010/3000.
   This target was quickly achieved with a low for the day exactly here.
   Longs need stops below 2970.

2. Targets for our longs are 3055/60 and even 3095/99 is possible.

3. However, a break below 2970 is a sell signal for today, targeting 2930/25, perhaps as far as strong support at 2900/2890. 

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