2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES
By The Numbers — Women’s 200 Freestyle
In the last year, the Australian women have ushered in a new era in the women’s 200 freestyle.
Italian legend Federica Pelligrini owned the women’s 200 freestyle world record for nearly 15 years. After first claiming the record in 2008, Pelligrini broke through the 1:53 barrier with a 1:52.98 at the 2009 World Championships. Her standard held firm against swimmers like Alison Schmitt, Katie Ledecky, and Sarah Sjostrom, to name a few. Pelligrini remained the world record holder and sole woman under 1:53 until the 2023 World Championships, when Mollie O’Callaghan shocked the crowd by not only upsetting Olympic champion Ariarne Titmus, but by cracking Pellegrini’s world record in 1:52.85.
O’Callaghan was a relay-only swimmer at the Tokyo Games, making her Olympic debut at 17 years old. In just two years, she rose to the very top of the 200 freestyle. Behind her, Titmus claimed silver in 1:53.01 (just missing the 1:53 mark herself) and the Australian women went 1-2, ushering in a new age of Australian dominance to match their iron grip on the 4×200 freestyle relay.
Aussie Dominance
We got treated to just how brutal this event will be during the Australian Olympic Trials. St. Peters Western training partners Titmus and O’Callaghan, side by side once again, battled it out. Not content to let O’Callaghan get the better of her twice or to miss breaking 1:53 again, Titmus surged after the first 50 meters. She flipped at the halfway mark two-tenths ahead of O’Callaghan.
Titmus held off O’Callaghan on the back half, even out-splitting her over the final 50 meters to crush the world record in 1:52.23. O’Callaghan was also under her old world record, earning her 200 free roster spot in 1:52.48, the second-fastest time in history.
Data Visualization: Australian Olympic Trials vs. Former World Record
| Ariarne Titmus – 2024 Australian Olympic Trials (WR) | Mollie O’Callaghan – 2024 Australian Olympic Trials | Mollie O’Callaghan – 2023 Worlds (Previous WR) | |
| 50 | 26.64 | 26.59 | 26.93 |
| 100 | 55.13 (28.49) | 55.33 (28.74) | 55.94 (29.01) |
| 150 | 1:23.95 (28.82) | 1:24.11 (28.78) | 1:24.74 (28.80) |
| 200 | 1:52.23 (28.28) | 1:52.48 (28.37) | 1:52.85 (28.11) |
It’s rare to see O’Callaghan in the lead at the first 50 meters. Her strength typically lies in the back half; the data visualization shows how her swim from 2023 Worlds begins to catch both her 2024 self and Titmus over the final 100, where she split 56.91. At Trials, Titmus closed in 57.10, but she was out fast enough (55.13) that it did not matter.
Perhaps O’Callaghan–who is also the 2023 Worlds 100 free champion–used Trials as a race strategy test; she was out first at the 50 in 26.59, holding a .05 second lead on Titmus and a .34 second lead on her pace from Fukuoka. She flipped at the 100 in 55.33, joining Titmus well under the former world record pace. From a time only perspective, the strategy test did work—she out-split her old pace on three of four 50s and went a lifetime best. It just wasn’t enough to get the better of Titmus and she lost the world record.
So, it will be interesting to see what strategy O’Callaghan opts for in Paris. Both she and Titmus will be all in for gold. O’Callaghan will need an answer for how to best attack Titmus and close the now .25 second gap between them.
For her part, Titmus has put herself in excellent position to defend her Olympic gold medal. This was a statement swim for her as she dropped nearly a second and claimed the world record she’s been working towards for years. Titmus has proven that she can perform when the lights are the brightest. It’s a guarantee that she’ll be ready for whatever O’Callaghan will throw it her, which means whoever you’ve got claiming gold, it’s going to be an incredible race with possibly another world record in the cards. In less than a year the Australians have lowered the world record by .75 seconds — how much lower can they bring it?
The Third Woman: Siobhan Haughey
Another example of just how incredible the women’s 200 freestyle final in Fukuoka was: Tokyo silver medalist Siobhan Haughey swam 1:53.96 and missed the podium.
With 2023 bronze medalist and world junior record holder Summer McIntosh dropping the 200 freestyle, Haughey’s path back to the Olympic podium is clearer. She’s the only person in the field other than Titmus and O’Callaghan who has been faster than 1:54. And she’s been under the mark twice; once in Fukuoka and once in Tokyo, when she swam 1:53.92 for Olympic silver and a national record.
Haughey neared her lifetime best earlier this season. She showed up at the World Cup tour in excellent shape, firing off a 52.02 100 freestyle and hitting a 1:54.08 200 freestyle, .16 seconds from her best.
She’s raced a lot this season; in addition to the World Cup, she raced at 2024 Worlds—where she won her first world title in 1:54.89—and the Mare Nostrum tour. Haughey’s no stranger to a busy in-season schedule and at Mare Nostrum she spoke about how at each stop, she “was trying to do something different,” with her strategy when she raced both the 100 and 200 free.
On paper, she’s in a sort of no man’s land as she’s over a second behind both Australians but almost a half-second up on Yang Junxuan. She’s a favorite for the podium but has a challenge ahead of her to climb higher than bronze. But after focusing on “non-time based goals” and trying to figure out the race strategy that works best for her, Haughey will be aiming to marry both the strategy and the time in Paris.
Returning Tokyo Olympic Finalists
Yang Junxuan and Barbora Seemanova are the only other Tokyo finalists returning to the race in Paris. Tokyo bronze medalist Penny Oleksiak did not qualify, Rio champion Katie Ledecky scratched, Pellegrini retired, and Madi Wilson is expecting a child.
Yang took 4th in Tokyo, clocking 1:55.01 and finishing .31 seconds behind Oleksiak. She took advantage of a wide open race at 2022 Worlds, cracking 1:55 and winning gold in 1:54.92. Now 22, she’s continued to improve. At April’s Chinese Championships she lowered her lifetime best to 1:54.37, which ranks 4th fastest in the field this season.
Seemanova’s found another gear as well. Now a three-time Olympian, the 24 year old broke her lifetime best from the Tokyo Games with a 1:55.12 at the AP Race London International Meet in May. About a month later, she backed it up with a 1:55.37, the second-fastest swim of her career, to win gold at 2024 Euros.
Haughey has separation from her lifetime best on both sides, but Yang is starting to round into her rearview mirror. Yang’s sitting in a similar position to Haughey in that she’s got a decent gap to bridge to the next fastest swimmer (Haughey) but also has .75 seconds on Seemanova’s lifetime best.
The 1:55s
Seemanova leads a bunched up crew of five swimmers entered in Paris who have been 1:55 this season. Behind her is Mary-Sophie Harvey (1:55.44), Erika Fairweather (1:55.45), Li Bingjie (1:55.73), and Claire Weinstein (1:55.86).
In less than a year, Harvey has evolved into one of Canada’s best 200 freestylers. In November, she swam a lifetime best 1:57.70, which she matched a week later at the U.S. Open. Since then, she’s lowered her best four times, bringing it all the way to 1:55.44 to touch second at Canadian Olympic Trials in May. That’s a 2.26 second drop in about six months. Harvey is clearly on fire and could be dangerous if she continues her improvement trajectory into Paris.
Erika Fairweather has also had a breakout year. She’s found most of her success in the 400 freestyle: in 2023 she broke 4:00 for the first time and ran down McIntosh for bronze. Then in Doha she earned New Zealand’s first world championship title, again breaking 4:00 in a lifetime best 3:59.44.
While the 400 free is her best event, she’s also found success dropping down to the 200 free. She won silver in Doha in 1:55.77. Her lifetime best is 1:55.44, a time she just missed by .01 second at New Zealand’s nationals. Fairweather finished 16th in this event in Tokyo and was 11th in Fukuoka. But if she’s on form she should find her way into the final.
Speaking of dropping down, Li Bingjie is slated to take on the 200 freestyle in Paris. Li’s much more known for her prowess in the 400/800/1500 freestyle. But she helped China to gold in the 4×200 relay in Tokyo and bronze at 2023 Worlds—now, she’ll try her hand at the individual event. There is the possibility that she scratches this race to prioritize the 1500 free prelim the day after the final but if she swims, she could make things interesting. In December, she swam 1:55.73, nearing her best from the 2023 Chinese Spring Championship. That puts her 9th on the pre-scratch entry list, right on the bubble for the final.
Claire Weinstein finished second to Ledecky at U.S. Trials in 1:55.86, rebounding from a difficult outing in the 400 freestyle to open the meet to make her first Olympic team at 17. She holds a lifetime best of 1:55.26, swum at 2023 U.S. Nationals. She’s got two Worlds trips under her belt now, where she finished 10th and 12th. If she can manage the rounds effectively with those two experiences under her belt, she could made her first senior international individual final.
With Ledecky scratching and Paige Madden declining the spot, Erin Gemmell is the second swimmer for the U.S. in this event. She was 1:56.35 for 4th at U.S. Trials, but has been as fast as 1:55.97, swum at 2023 Worlds. In 2023, it took a 1:56.49 to make the final, a tenth faster than the Tokyo cut line. The cut could stabilize there with several big names missing, giving Gemmell a chance at the final.
The Verdict
This will be an intense race for gold between the current and former world record holders, Titmus and O’Callaghan. Then it looks like Haughey in line for the bronze medal. So even with the Australian firepower at the top of this race, the picks for the podium are fairly straightforward.
Key absences like McIntosh, Ledecky, Oleksiak, Freya Anderson, and Marrit Steenbergen give other swimmers an opportunity to step up and make the Olympic final. In addition to the slew of 1:55s, the door is open for swimmers like Nikolett Padar, Maria de Oliveira da Silva Costa, and Aimee Canny, who have all dropped 1:56-range lifetime bests this season and are looking to move up.
SwimSwam’s Picks
Dark Horse: Minna Abraham (Hungary) — A bit further down the entry list is Hungary’s Minna Abraham. Like many swimmers in this event, she’s already swum a lifetime best this season. Since first breaking 1:58 at the U.S. Open, she’s been under that mark another three times. At 2024 Euros, she swam a 1:57.22 lifetime best, which she nearly matched a week later in 1:57.52. Abraham spent the last year stateside at USC, posting head-turning times through her first yards season. Now back in meters and fully tapered, she could grab a finals lane if she keeps dropping time.