Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the alleged shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. In the aftermath of the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being killed by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favour traditional haven assets and perhaps lean into trades most linked to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“Undoubtedly there’ll be some protectionist or haven flows in the Asia early morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I’d suspect gold could test all time highs, we will see the yen getting bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries too.”
Initial market commentary suggested the shooting of Trump at a Saturday rally in Pennsylvania may also prompt traders to boost his probability of success in November’s election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs are generally viewed as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
One early weekend indicator of market sentiment: Bitcoin rose above $60,000, probably reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include the shares of energy firms, private prisons, credit-card companies and health insurance firms.
Traders will also closely watch market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those on the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which had begun to price in the US vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after gunfire erupted at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which saw him rushed from the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shooting. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear read may be especially tough because liquidity will be hampered by Japan’s national holiday,” says Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run into the election, not least because Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor debate performance last month raised questions about his age. Investors had been also grappling with the possibility that the election may end in a protracted dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market dipped before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose over 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances, and ultimately lead to worries about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, California-based chief strategist at BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market should at some point, become aware of President Trump’s higher odds of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his odds rise, so should the probability of a bond market riot.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold after the shooting.
“This news marks a changing point in American political norms,” he said. “For markets, it means haven trades but more skewed towards non-traditional havens.”