A view on gold via UBS, analysts at the bank see it higher but a pullback first.
UBS says there are several positive trends supporting gold:
- the Federal Reserve look to be on track to rate cuts
- global central banks are buyers of gold (purchased more than 1,000 metric tons of gold in 2022 and in 2023, the largest purchases the 1960s ), as are investors (demand from China is particularly notable, UBS citing this as “possibly reflecting caution over the outlook for the equity market and property prices”)
- ongoing rising geopolitical risk is gold supportive; the upcoming US election has the potential to aggravate tensions between the US and China, continuing wars in Ukraine and Palestine, Red Sea shipping attacks will all place a greater focus on gold for investors
UBS:
- “We remain positive on the price of gold for 2024, and continue to recommend it as a portfolio hedge,”
- “We expect gold to trend higher to US$2,250/oz, but would wait for price setbacks to gain exposure, even if these turn out to be modest and brief”