Gold has long been a barometer of economic sentiment, and 2025 is proving no different. Entering the year at record highs in major currencies following the turbulent start to Trump’s second term, 2025 looks set to be a potentially strong year for the metal with uncertainty still high.
Whilst professional analysts have historically taken the lead in forecasting price trends, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has introduced a new player in the prediction game. How well can AI predict gold prices compared to human investors and industry professionals? Gold investing platform BullionVault collates the results with their AI gold price predictions.
How AI Stacks Up Against Humans
AI has already demonstrated strong predictive capabilities in the gold market. In 2024, Google’s Gemini AI was just 0.4% off the actual average Q4 gold price. However, AI-generated forecasts vary widely, as evidenced by the divergence between ChatGPT-4 Turbo’s bullish outlook and Meta AI’s more restrained predictions.
BullionVault’s December 2024 survey of 1,443 precious metal investors revealed that 31% of respondents believed geopolitical factors—including tensions in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and US-China relations—would have the greatest impact on gold prices in 2025. AI models incorporate similar factors but rely on historical data and economic indicators rather than subjective investor sentiment.
Factors That Can Influence Gold Prices
Gold prices are driven by a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and market-specific factors. Understanding these influences is crucial for both AI and human forecasters when attempting to predict future price movements. The key factors include:
- Geopolitical Uncertainty – Events such as wars, trade disputes, and political instability can drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and pushing up prices.
- Inflation and Interest Rates – Gold often moves inversely to interest rates. When central banks raise rates, gold becomes less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets. Conversely, in times of high inflation or economic uncertainty, investors turn to gold as a hedge.
- Government and Central Bank Policies – The monetary policies of major central banks, including gold purchases by national reserves, significantly influence price trends.
- Currency Fluctuations – Since gold is priced in U.S. dollars, a weaker dollar generally makes gold cheaper for international buyers, boosting demand and driving prices higher.
- Market Demand and Supply – Demand from jewelry, technology, and investment sectors affects gold prices, along with mining output and recycling rates.
How did AI perform in 2024?
Leveraging AI to make predictions can be difficult given the imperfect information it often has access to, however, it is interesting to note that BullionVault ran a similar study in 2024 and Gemini particularly predicted a strong year for gold which came to fruition:
Data from the previous study:
Is now the time to invest in gold?
Gold prices tend to rise during times of uncertainty, and investors worldwide have been turning to the precious metal in response to various geopolitical tensions and the policies of President Trump. But is now the right time to invest in gold? If you’re looking to diversify your portfolio, it’s certainly worth considering. As the saying goes, the best time to start investing was yesterday—what holds true for the stock market may apply to gold as well.