Disclaimer: Opinions are our own and not financial or investment advice
A lot is written about gold and silver predictions, there is hardly any research on platinum predictions.
At jpost.com, we try to fill that gap by presenting readers with our platinum prediction research readout.
Table of contents
We look at the following topics in this article. Readers who are only interested in the specific platinum predictions for 2025, not in the research, may scroll down to the bottom to find our best case and base case platinum forecast 2025.
- The importance of platinum as a physical metal
- The importance of platinum as portfolio diversification
- The role of platinum the precious metals universe
- The platinum chart
- The correlation between platinum and silver
- Physical market supply/demand
- Platinum prediction 2025 – summary
- Platinum predictions 2025 by financial institutions
1. The importance of platinum as a physical metal
Platinum, a precious metal known for its luster and durability, is also a cornerstone of modern industry. Its unique properties and versatility make it indispensable in various applications.
- Catalytic Properties:
- Reduces harmful emissions in catalytic converters
- Facilitates chemical reactions in industrial processes
- Improves efficiency of fuel cells
- Industrial Applications:
- Electronics: Electrodes, electrical contacts, optical fibers
- Healthcare: Pacemakers, dental implants, chemotherapy drugs
- Automotive: Catalytic converters, spark plugs, turbine blades
- Jewelry: Popular choice for its beauty and durability
- Physical Properties:
- High melting point
- Malleable and ductile
- Resistant to corrosion
- Economic Value:
- Highly sought-after metal due to its versatility and scarcity
- Plays a vital role in driving innovation and economic growth
2. The importance of platinum as portfolio diversification
Platinum, a precious metal often overshadowed by its more well-known counterparts, gold and silver, offers unique investment opportunities due to its distinct characteristics and market dynamics. As a component of a diversified portfolio, platinum can provide several advantages:
1. Diversification Benefits:
- Uncorrelated Returns: Platinum’s price movements often diverge from those of traditional assets like stocks and bonds, offering a potential hedge against market volatility.
- Reduced Risk: By adding platinum to a portfolio, investors can spread their risk across different asset classes, mitigating the impact of potential losses in any single asset.
- Enhanced Returns: Platinum’s price fluctuations can generate attractive returns, contributing to the overall performance of a diversified portfolio.
2. Precious Metals Synergy:
- Complementary Exposure: Combining platinum with other precious metals, such as gold and silver, can provide a broader exposure to the precious metals market, capturing potential upside movements in different segments.
- Risk Management: Strategically allocating investments across precious metals can help mitigate the impact of fluctuations in any individual metal’s price.
3. Long-Term Investment Potential:
- Structural Demand: Platinum’s industrial applications, particularly in the automotive and electronics sectors, create a solid foundation for long-term demand.
- Scarcity and Supply Constraints: The limited supply of platinum relative to its demand can support its price over the long term.
4. Tactical Allocation Strategy:
- Buy on Dips: Consider adding platinum to your portfolio when its price falls to a historically significant support level, potentially offering a favorable entry point.
- Gradual Accumulation: As platinum’s price appreciates, gradually increase your allocation to capture potential upside while managing risk.
5. Chart Analysis: A Long-Term Perspective
3. The role of platinum the precious metals universe
As we gain an understanding of the importance of having some exposure to physical platinum, we now pivot to platinum’s leading price indicators as well as intermarket dynamics.
Platinum, being one of the 4 precious metals, has a rather strong correlation with other precious metals, particularly gold and silver.
However, there are some specific things that investors should know about intermarket dynamics between platinum and the precious metals universe. This is critical, both from an investor perspective and also to set the expectations right for a platinum forecast for 2025.
- Platinum positively correlated to gold and silver over a long period of time.
- The correlation is not strong on a short timeframe, certainly not on a day-by-day basis.
- Platinum tends to thrive when gold is in a long term bull market. It typically is a leveraged play on gold’s secular bull market.
- Conversely, platinum tend to underperform gold when gold was going down (2013-2016).
The chart below, exhibiting all 4 precious metals, over a period of 30 years, helps us create a framework for a reasonable platinum prediction for 2025 and beyond.
Take-away – Platinum is expected to have a bullish bias in 2025 as gold’s bull market is now here to stay.
4. The platinum chart
The platinum price chart will ultimately have the answers for a reasonable platinum price prediction in 2025.
The platinum market is consolidating around the $1,000 mark for nearly 8 years. That’s remarkable.
What’s even more remarkable is the obvious falling trendline combined with ultra strong support around $800 on the platinum chart. Anyone can spot this, no PhD needed.
Chart-wise, platinum is creating what is called a bullish triangle:
- Bullish triangles tend to consolidate for a long time, much longer than most investors can wait.
- Whenever a bullish triangle resolve to the upside, it does so with a vengeance. Don’t want to miss those moves, and positioning when the market is quiet during the ‘boring’ consolidation is the easiest way to gain exposure (minimal headache, only patience required).
- The invalidation point is simple and clear – horizontal support must hold to ensure a ‘good outcome’.
The bullish triangle on the platinum chart makes it very simple for investors – as long as $800 is respected, platinum is supposed to be working on a bullish resolution.
Now that is an important input into a 2025 platinum price prediction. Moreover, it looks also bright for investors that can exhibit patience.
Take-away – For as long as platinum respects support, the base case platinum prediction 2025 is a move to $1,200. Visibly, this chart suggests that whenever a breakout occurs, clearing the 16-year falling trendline, a quick move to $1,440 is the obvious outcome. Based on this chart, we consider $1,200 to be the base case platinum forecast for 2025, and $1,440 the best case prediction.
5. The correlation between platinum and silver
The platinum chart messages are clear – support at $800, first higher target $1,200 followed by $1,440 which where the real platinum market starts.
Now, let’s look at potential intermarket drivers, within the precious metals universe.
Based on our own research, it appears that platinum has the strongest correlation with silver.
The next chart, showing both platinum (candlesticks) and silver (line), over a period of 40 years, makes is it crystal clear – silver and platinum are strongly correlated.
What is absolutely crucial is the long term aspect of this intermarket dynamic – the chart shows a correlation over 40 years. Investors should not compare both silver and platinum on a day-by-day basis. Rather, it is a quarter-by-quarter comparison that should be applied to discover the correlation.
Essentially, the key question to resolve to understand whether intermarket dynamics will push platinum higher, is what silver will do.
This authority in silver forecasting has a high confidence level result from this research – silver is set to move higher in 2025. The research underpinning this bullish silver prediction is based on lots of data points, but it also considers a variety of angles.
Take-away – It is fair to say that silver is set to move higher, creating bullish intermarket dynamics for platinum. This increases confidence is a sustained move higher in platinum in the coming years. The $1,200 platinum price prediction for 2025 is rightfully a base case prediction, and the best case forecast of $1,440 is likely a reasonable platinum target either in 2025 or 2026, provided $800 holds strong.
6. Physical market supply/demand
Next up is the physical platinum market.
We consult World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), a specialist in analyzing the physical platinum market.
Their latest research suggests that platinum is entering a period with supply deficit.
This should sound like music in the ears of smart investors, looking to pick up physical platinum at discounted prices, around $1,000.
Below is the platinum market prediction for 2025 and beyond, particularly physical demand and supply data, on aggregate level.
Visibly, 2023 and 2024 are pivotal years for platinum. Equally important is the adjusted forecast by the WPIC, as seen below, suggesting even tighter physical market conditions in 2025 and beyond (compared to their previous forecast).
It seems like there is a trend – a sustained supply deficit in the physical platinum market.
7. Platinum price prediction 2025 – a summary
Now, let’s combine the data points we presented in this research:
- The physical platinum market is entering a longer period of supply deficit. This should be a catalyst for higher platinum prices, likely even a platinum bull market.
- Precious metals intermarket dynamics: the long term gold bull market is expected to be here to stay. This should support both silver and platinum to move higher, directionally, in 2025 and beyond, for as long as gold continues its uptrend.
- Platinum is strongly correlated to silver. While silver has moved up strongly in 2024, platinum has been flat, starting to turn higher. Platinum seems to be supported by silver, with platinum still a bargain in relative terms (for as long as it respects $800 as support).
All of the above are visible on the platinum price charts:
- The triangle on platinum’s secular chart has a strong bullish character.
- Platinum is slowly but surely turning higher, reflecting the intermarket and physical market dynamics discussed above.
Because of this, it is fair to say that the $1,200 platinum price prediction for 2025 is a base case prediction, likely even a conservative prediction.
The best case platinum price forecast for 2025 and 2026 is $1,440 followed by $1,800.
8. Platinum predictions 2025 by financial institutions
So far, among financial institutions, only ANZ Research has published a platinum prediction for 2025. ANZ Research expects platinum to rise to $1,273/oz in 2025.
Their platinum prediction sits somewhere in-between our price targets, so it’s fair to say that it seems a rather conservative target, based on the data at hand at the time of writing.
Over time, we plan to add more platinum price predictions of financial institutions as more of them decide to publish their annual platinum forecast.
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