The Big Market Crash Of 2025 Is Underway

It is easier to predict the past, and you will hear many doing it now and in the near future. However, I’ve been calling this crash here on Forbes for some time, and now the crash of 2025 is on deck.

Here is the chart from my article March 20 compared with the chart today:

As I write, it’s another 2% down in the pre-market.

So did you get the whole memo?

It’s a trifecta of bad news.

1. Tariffs: These will raise prices, thus lowering American consumer buying power. They will also implode global trade, which will likely create a U.S .and global recession. Lower purchasing power plus a recession is bad. Now add…
2. DOGE: Let’s say they cut $1 trillion off the U.S. fiscal budget. That’s $1 trillion that would be circulating through the economy. It doesn’t matter, in the short term, that it’s scammers, wasted resources, or created by incompetence and errors – that’s a long term issue. What matters right now is that it’s $1 trillion less in the economic circuit. Remember, a lot of that money is coming back as taxes and certainly was going to pulse through U.S. shops and enterprises. Incompetent, wasteful fraudsters drive cars, get haircuts, go shopping, eat Big Macs. Government stimulates the economy by pumping cash through the system, and this saving will do the opposite. $1 trillion of economic cooling is about 3% of GDP. So, the consumer is going to be caught in a 3% recession from DOGE and about the same from tariffs. That cash flow pincer creates a depression.
3. Let’s destabilize the whole world by threatening conflict just about everywhere: How is that going to pan out for the dollar, treasury bonds, and interest rates? At very least, it’s not going to be calming. Even joking about Greenland, Canada, pulling out of NATO, and preparing for Asian conflict, is enough to crash the market.

This is the combination of blows that is crashing the market.

Assets go up when uncertainty falls. Assets are worth less in an unstable world. Any one of the above developments could create a crash, even in a modestly valued market, but put them together and you have a setup for an epic rout.

I’m out, holding only material positions in precious metals and a couple of stocks (I should sell), and even the precious metals are held reluctantly because when markets crash, everything can get hammered.

So, here is an indicative chart of the level we can head down to. It’s ugly:

Every level down is less likely, but this is politically driven, so it’s not a question of finance; it’s a question of governance. “Revolutionary,” they say – well, that’s really bad right there. A lot of things perish in a revolution, and most of them are good things.

So, to get set, you should draw your projection on a chart and watch the market prove you right or wrong, while remembering the market doesn’t listen to you, so you have to listen to it. Like any game you want to win at, keep your eye on the ball and try and gauge it.

I’m out, but the way to progress is the same in all these types of circumstances. Clear out the trash in your portfolio first, then work up into quality, until you feel comfortable with what you hold. If you are a buy-and-holder, then fine, but if you are not, don’t panic – just adjust. I’ve adjusted, as you might guess from my previous articles leading up to this, and that adjustment is to go to cash. My view now is that the only thing that’s important is the question: where is the bottom? Because it’s about a solid re-entry now. Rather than worrying if the market is crashing, to me it’s about how far and how fast. The dotcom crash was over two years long, as was the crash of 1929. This, I fear, is going to be similar because the market is terribly high, and it is being shot down from lofty valuations, which were only sustainable under the old rules of government support. That is the last bit of the memo: what has gone before is over.

Unless there is a miracle, this is a big one – perhaps a defining crash.

Look out below.