Recent numbers from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) show that monthly aluminium output rose 1.2% YoY to 6.18mt last month amid higher production from almost all major producing countries. Cumulative production rose 3.2% YoY to 48.2mt over the first eight months of the year. Chinese output is estimated to have increased 1.3% YoY to 3.7mt in August, while year-to-date production rose 4.4% YoY to 28.7mt. Meanwhile, aluminium production in Asia (ex-China) rose 3% YoY to 408kt in August. Production in Western and Central Europe also increased by 5.7% YoY to 243kt last month.
The latest data from China Customs show that gold imports in China fell significantly by 83% YoY to 20.9t (for the third month straight) in August, as record prices amid geopolitical risks weighed on purchases. This was the lowest monthly purchase since February 2021. Meanwhile, cumulative gold imports stood at 965t in January-August 2024, down 5.5% YoY.
Weekly data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) shows that inventories for base metals remained mixed over the last week. Copper weekly stocks fell by 20,582 tonnes (-11% week-on-week) for the 11th consecutive week to 164,938 tonnes as of Friday, the lowest since the week ending 9 February 2024. Amongst other metals, nickel inventories decreased by 1,169 tonnes to 22,845 tonnes, while lead, zinc, and aluminium inventories rose by 18.5%, 4.8%, and 1% respectively.
The latest positioning data from the CFTC shows that managed money net longs in COMEX gold increased by 25,919 lots for a second consecutive week to 252,628 lots as of 17 September. This is the largest position that speculators have held in gold since March 2020. There has been a significant rise in gold prices as the Federal Reserve started its interest rate cut cycle with a significant 50bp cut at its recent meeting, which supported these flows. Similarly, speculators increased their net long in COMEX silver by 15,222 lots for a second consecutive week to 42,312 lots as of last Tuesday, which is the largest position speculators have held since April 2022. Speculators also increased their net long in copper by 4,718 lots to 22,338 lots over the last reporting week.