2002 American Silver Eagle : A Collector’s Guide

By Charles Morgan and Hubert Walker for CoinWeek Notes …..
 

America continued to reel from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. On cable news, video of the ruins of the World Trade Center and the badly damaged western flank of the Pentagon was omnipresent. In October 2001, America and its NATO allies began to pound terrorist targets in Afghanistan, and by early 2002, the first prisoners had arrived at Guantanamo Bay.

Economically, government forecasters expected a downturn in the numbers that did not materialize and by the second half of the year, they revised their forecasts upwards. While the effect of the attacks on GDP and unemployment was negligible, the uncertainty and trauma they caused did impact precious metal investor sentiment as the 2002 American Silver Eagle bullion coin saw the program’s first 10-million piece mintage since 1987. Looking back, an epochal change in the American Silver Eagle market was manifesting as early as 1999, but by 2002 America had entered into an asymmetrical war with a stateless actor.

The silver spot price averaged $4.60 an ounce in 2002, with a brief period of activity over $5.00 in June and July. The majority of the mintage of the 2002 American Silver Eagle remains in investor holdings, but approximately 235,000 coins have been certified by the leading grading services through August 20, 2024. Over the past decade, an average of about 4,000 coins from this date have been certified each year.

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Market Data and Noteworthy Specimens

We observed the following in our 2014 market analysis:

Whatever premium PCGS’s signature labels brought for Mint State issues has receded. Several examples we’ve tracked in December show the coins selling at the low end of our range for PCGS MS69. In the higher-end … are PCGS First Strike labels. True auctions are your friend, as coins with $0.99 start prices will seldom climb above our guide price.

There are a couple of things going on with this statement, and not all of it holds today.

First, in 2014, a glut of signed certified American Silver Eagles had flooded the market. On the primary market, sellers–who paid a premium for signature labels from the grading services–offered these coins at a premium price. Once in the secondary market, collectors became the primary online auction sellers. When these sellers offered their signed coins on sites like eBay, they realized prices on the low end of what MS69 coins in normal slabs would bring.

It seems that this is no longer the case. Most of the slabbed 2002 American Silver Eagles sold online are not signature slabs, and when offered through true auctions, generic signatures often bring the same amount as non-signature slabs. On the primary market, professional sellers continue to get higher prices for these coins at retail.

Beyond the “generic” signed slabs is a category of ultra-exclusive signatures. Take a look at this screenshot from PCGS:

We count 37 different label varieties, and 30 of them have populations under 100. While the grading service and its customers can increase the populations at their discretion, one imagines that some of these signatures are harder to acquire than others. We also expect this list to continue to expand with new signers and new limited-edition categories.

Ten years ago (2014), PCGS counted just 74 coins in MS70. At the same time, NGC had a population of 2,147. Because of this disparity, PCGS MS70 coins traded for about $1,250 each, while NGC coins brought $300. Of course, using inflation-adjusted dollars, these totals were $1,680 and $403, respectively. Today, we do not see a real price differential between the two services as the percentage of coins grading MS70 has increased from less than 1% to 17% since 2014. The NGC MS70 grading percentage also increased from 1.5% to 10.4% over the same period.

Top Population: PCGS MS70 (3,362, 8/2024), NGC MS70 (5,228, 8/2024), and CAC MS69 (250, 8/2024).

• PCGS MS70 #36970428: eBay, August 19, 2024 – $107.60. “Direct From a Mint Box” novelty insert with green novelty core.
• NGC MS70 #275342-015: eBay, August 11, 2024 – $349.
• NGC MS70 #6248352-015: eBay, August 10, 2024 – $499.
• NGC MS70 #207311-023: eBay, August 10, 2024 – $318.99.
• NGC MS70 #325026-009: eBay, August 9, 2024 – $319.95.
• PCGS MS70 #38867172: eBay, August 8, 2024 – $430.76. John Mercanti First Strike signature label.
• PCGS MS70 #40441298: eBay, July 30, 2024 – $136.19.

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Design

Obverse:

Artist Adolph A. Weinman’s Lady Liberty is depicted mid-stride. She is seen as a full-body figure, dressed in a flowing gown, and draped with a large billowing American flag. She holds laurel and oak branches in her left hand that symbolize the civil and military glories of America, respectively. As Liberty strides confidently towards the rising sun, she presents a welcoming and open hand. So large is Lady Liberty that she is superimposed over the obverse legend LIBERTY ringing the obverse – in fact, she obscures half of the “BE” and almost the entire “R”. Above Liberty’s outstretched rear foot is the motto IN GOD WE TRUST, and below her is the date 2002.

Reverse:

United States Mint Chief Engraver John Mercanti’s Heraldic Eagle is positioned at the center of the reverse. Clutched in its beak is a ribbon bearing the motto E PLURIBUS UNUM. Above its head is a constellation of 13 stars configured in an upside-down pyramid formation. The legend UNITED STATES OF AMERICA wraps around the top of the design and the fineness and denomination 1 OZ. FINE SILVER. ONE DOLLAR is at the bottom.

Edge:

The edge of the 2002 American Silver Eagle bullion coin is reeded.

Coin Specifications

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