In a silly forecast, the 538 has Biden a tossup favorite. Nate Silver says Trump has a 72.2 percent chance. Several charts to discuss.
Chart from 538 Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
This is despite the 538 polls used to make the forecast.
Latest National Polls Influencing the Forecast
Does This Make Any Sense?
Of course not. One of three things has happened.
- 538’s model has gone ridiculously wild
- This is purposeful cheerleading.
- 538 is predicting what it wants to happen.
538 Explanation
It’s 120 days until Election Day, and our model thinks the presidential election could go either way. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 505 out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in 491 of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In 4 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.
It might not seem like it based on the panicked reaction to Biden’s poor debate performance nearly two weeks ago, but the election is still a considerable ways away. This means there is a lot of uncertainty about where the polls will end up on Nov. 5. In turn, the 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators. Today these indicators suggest an outcome closer to a 3-point Biden win — clear in the opposite direction of national polls.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win.
That explanation describes point number 1.
However, not only is the model predicting political trends. It’s also predicting economic trends, and I believe very poorly.
I have more on the economics side of things below. First, let’s check in with Nate Silver.
Nate Silver, Who Is Favored to Win
The above chart is courtesy of The Silver Bulletin.
There is a free portion of the Silver Bulletin and a subscriber portion. The chart above is from the subscriber portion, minus Kennedy data and minus the odds of no winner (headed to recounts or the courts). If you like what you see, then please subscribe.
In his latest post Silver discuss House Effects, which he adjusts for. For example, “Rasmussen has a long history of strongly Republican-leaning numbers.“
Despite a couple of very good polls for Biden by Marist, Trump’s odds of winning are among the highest ever.
Wild But Possible
Just because 538 is ridiculously wild, even absurd, that does not make their forecast impossible.
Let’s assume Silver has nailed it.
No better yet, let’s assume the true odds are 83.33 percent Trump and 16.67 percent Biden. That means Biden would win one in six times, certainly not impossible.
And if Biden were to win, it does not mean 538’s model was good. It may mean 538 got lucky. Few people understand the distinction between a lucky outcome and probabilities.
I picked 16.67 percent on purpose. It’s the same as betting on any individual number on a single role of one dice. That happens often, with often defined as 16.67 percent for dice and 16.67 percent or better for the election.
Suppose I had a model that predicts a three on a single roll of a dice. A three comes up. Was the model good or lucky?
Assume another model loudly states a three is very unlikely. But a three comes up. Is that model wrong, or unlucky.
A lot of people thought they were geniuses in 2016 predicting Trump would win. It took a last second miracle from Comey for that to happen.
I thought it would be close but Hillary would win. I think I had the right model. Nate Silver had Hillary a huge favorite.
The Right Idea
The Attack Dogs
I agree with Colin.
Getting cocky: Hillary did not travel to major battleground states thinking they were in the bag and she made silly statements (recall Hillary’s “deplorables” comment).
Trump is highly likely to make silly statements and get too cocky. The saving grace now my very well be Biden is more cocky.
Fake News?
This is absolutely not fake news. It’s a model and one that looks absurd today, but it can easily happen.
Future Events
“This goes further than the normal polls. They are forecasting future events.”
Correct. I believe very wrong. But I have been known to be wrong (as has everyone else).
The Seen and Unseen
Long shots do happen. And there are nearly four month to go. Anything can happen.
If Biden drops out, what are the odds? The correct answer is you don’t know nor does anyone else.
My base case is Biden does drop out, but I hope he doesn’t because his medical condition is guaranteed to worsen.
However, a worsening medical condition is not necessarily fatal. Over the next four months people might realize, or come to believe Biden will immediately turn the reins over to Kamala, with unknown ramifications.
Yet people seem certain that Biden would necessarily lose if he stays in. Perhaps it’s one in six. 538 seems to think its 50-50 but part of that could be an expectation that Biden does drop out and Kamala beats Trump.
Political Outlook
The 538 model appears to be making irrational decisions politically.
Young voters and blacks are turning away from Democrats in startling numbers. And the polls have been consistent on this all year, starting February.
Candidate Preference by Age Group
An amazing 41 percent of those 18-34 are for Trump with only 30 percent for Biden.
That’s an unprecedented 11 percentage point gap for Republicans. In 2020 this age group voted overwhelmingly for Biden.
I discussed the above poll and also candidate preference by race in Post-Debate USA Today-Suffolk Poll Has Grim News for President Biden
Please click on link for 11 charts.
On June 19, I commented Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II
Economists say wages are now rising faster than the CPI. That’s not true for those who rent or wish to buy a house.
Those renting have seen the price of rent go up at least 0.4 percent every month for 33 consecutive months. That string finally broke in June with a 0.3 percent rise.
Meanwhile, the cost of a home has skyrocketed.
Renters (mainly young adults and blacks), have been left behind and it shows up in the polls.
What About Recession?
A big mistake in the 358 model is not only predicting extremely favorable things for Biden, but also depending on very good things economically.
Data is weakening everywhere.
Recession Has Begun
On July 8, I stated Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When
Weakness Everywhere
There is weakness in housing (new home sales, existing home sales, and starts at the lowest in 4 years), consumer spending, manufacturing (both durable and nondurable good), jobs data (constant negative revisions, QCEW, major survey discrepancies, quits, and a rising unemployment rate), and finally we have major unexpected ISM Services in Contraction.
All of the above items are hard data other than the services ISM.
There is no savior on the horizon this time. The Fed rates to be inactive until it panics in September and that will be much too late to stop a recession that started in May or June.
For more details and discussion as to why I think a recession has started, please see the above link.
If a recession has indeed started, a rate cut by the Fed in September is not going to reverse it.
And if there is a recession, and the unemployment rate picks up by November (my base case) what happens to the 538 model?
Still November is nearly four months away. 538 assumes nearly everything will go Biden’s way.
Even if a recession hits and Biden manages to stay in it is not impossible to Trump to lose. Call it one in six if you like.
Regardless, getting cocky is not a smart thing to do. Meanwhile, we still do not know Trump’s VP or whether or not Biden drops out. Either or both could dramatically change the odds, recession or not.