Rising activity and inflation indicators in China hint at an increase in global price pressures, potentially leading to a significant market adjustment and higher volatility in commodities like gold and silver. Authored by Simon White, a Bloomberg macro strategist, this development comes at a time when inflation concerns are resurfacing globally, especially after the recent PCE release in the US, which, despite showing a modest decline, revealed underlying inflation pressures.
China’s Economic Rebound: A Double-Edged Sword
Recent indicators suggest that China’s economy is on the path to recovery, driven by increased domestic demand and supportive macroeconomic policies. According to an IMF report, China’s GDP is projected to grow by 5.4 percent in 2023. However, this resurgence comes with its own set of challenges, particularly the potential for increased inflationary pressures. While inflation fell in 2023, it is expected to gradually rise to 1.3 percent in 2024. The IMF emphasizes the need for decisive policy actions, including restructuring in the property sector, to sustain confidence and boost private investment.
Implications for Global Markets
The prospect of rising inflation in China, a major player in the global economy, poses a risk to global price stability. This is particularly significant given the recent history of inflation hitting generational highs, which has seemingly led to market complacency regarding inflation risks. Normally, a significant inflation shock would result in a risk premium being built into prices for many years. However, current market dynamics, including low commodity volatility and an absence of a risk premium for inflation in yields, suggest that markets are unprepared for a potential inflation resurgence. Notably, implied volatility in metals, especially gold and silver, is at near-decade lows, not reflective of a market bracing for inflation.
Looking Ahead: Navigating Uncertainty
As China’s economic indicators point towards a rebound, the global market faces the challenge of adjusting to potential inflation pressures. This situation underscores the importance of closely monitoring China’s economic policies and their global implications. The calm in commodity markets, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, may be disrupted as inflation expectations adjust. This development warrants attention from investors and policymakers alike, as they navigate the uncertainties of a shifting economic landscape. With China’s gradual economic revival, the world may need to brace for the ripple effects on global inflation and market volatility.