Silver (XAG/USD) followed suit, retreating 0.33% to $36.43 after briefly testing near-weekly highs. The pullback came as markets interpreted the trade developments as a signal of easing global tensions, prompting modest rotation out of defensive assets like gold and silver.
Despite the softer tone, both metals remain underpinned by rising expectations of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve. The ADP private employment report showed a surprise loss of 33,000 jobs in June—the first monthly decline in more than two years. This follows a weaker-than-expected JOLTS report earlier in the week, reinforcing signs of cooling in the U.S. labour market.
“The labor market is clearly softening, and the Fed may not wait much longer to respond,” said Sarah Mendez, senior macro strategist at Alta Investments. “A weak NFP print on Friday could accelerate expectations of a rate cut as early as September.”
As of Thursday, Fed funds futures suggest a 25% probability of a July rate cut, with market pricing implying a 75% chance of easing by the September FOMC meeting.
While trade optimism has trimmed near-term upside, underlying macro uncertainty and dovish policy shifts continue to anchor demand for precious metals. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to be the next major catalyst, with markets bracing for increased volatility.
Short-Term Forecast
Gold hovers near $3,366 as traders await U.S. jobs data. Silver holds above $36.33. Fed rate cut bets limit downside despite risk-on sentiment.