19th April 2024
The broadcaster and William Hill ambassador makes his selections from Saturdays cards at Ayr’s Scottish Grand National meeting and Newbury.
Ayr, Saturday
PEMBROKE is the suggestion at 5/1 in Ayr’s opening TV race on Scottish National Day (1.15pm). Although I was pretty taken with Sans Bruit last weekend, he’ll get some serious company for the lead here from Traprain Law at least. Uncle Phil warrant plenty of respect, but even he may not concede seven pounds to the selection, who is back left-handed off a good mark and with a breathing op under his belt. He’ll enjoy a return to two miles with plenty of pace on.
MACLAINE is a threat to all in a smart novices’ handicap (1.50pm) at 15/2. While I’m wary of the class here in the shape of Sharjah and Marble Sands, I am in little doubt that Maclaine is a really well treated horse, who put it all together very stylishly in a fair race at Newbury. This is much tougher, but he looked like he belonged in a different grade that day, and can make his presence felt.
BIALYSTOK looks quite interesting in the Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.25pm). He’s not had much luck this season between Leopardstown and Cheltenham, but has shown enough at both big Festivals to think he is worthy of at least this mark, a view backed up by his good fourth in a Grade One before Christmas. He’s not the most straightforward to harness, and the return of Paul Townend could prove critical. 7/1.
LARCHMONT LASS might just fend off the marauding Mullins in the mares’ handicap (3.00pm). On her smart bumper form, you’d be amazed she’s still loitering off this mark, but she’s not been quick enough against some very fair sorts this season. A further step up in trip will bring about more progress judged on her recent Newbury effort, and she can be more competitive. 4/1.
STAY AWAY FAY has to be the play at the prices in the Scottish National (3.35pm). It’s a big ask for a relative novice to concede this weight over this trip, but how many really classy horses are in here? More to the point, how many sharp improvers are lurking? The market has sounded the claxon for the obvious ones in the latter category – Git Maker and Anglers Crag – and there’s not much juice left in either price. The main Mullins contenders are a horse that won a thin race last time (albeit stylishly) and a complete unknown on stamina. Stay Away Fay’s form speaks for itself, he won’t need a stupidly aggressive ride over this trip, the cheekpieces come off, and he can surely be forgiven his Cheltenham effort. Back him each way at current odds of 18/1.
Newbury, Saturday
SALT BAY is taken to spring a massive surprise at 40/1 in the John Porter at Newbury (1.30pm). A year ago, Ralph Beckett was entertaining notions of Classics for this horse following a Group One third as a two yearly, but he never really found his stride. But look a bit deeper… beaten six lengths by today’s fancy Chesspiece at Hamilton last year, he looked to have every chance with a furlong to run before sticking his head in the air and not doing a stroke. He then ran at least a stakes calibre race on bad ground under a huge weight here (stamina emphasis), before a dull effort on the synthetic. If there’s a horse that a gelding op might help, it’s surely him, and connections can have their patience rewarded at a price.
REGAL JUBILEE should do the job in the Fred Darling (2.05pm). I’d say she’s bigger than she ought to be at 3/1 because the Gosden horses are a bit behind schedule, but she has easily the most compelling profile to improve this year, and her final run doesn’t require much on top either. Relief Rally and Star Music are very possibly sprinters on that we’ve seen thus far, while Folgaria’s form is very hard to judge and the stable could use some winners.
MISTER SKETCH can land the Greenham for Eve Johnson Houghton (2.40pm) at 17/2. Although overlooked by James Doyle, who opts for Ballymount Boy, my view is that the Wathnan second string has the greater potential. Seriously impressive at Salisbury, it was only lack of street wisdom that undid him in Pattern company next time. The extra furlong should help a good deal.
BILL SILVERS looks like he has a good bit more to offer in the Spring Cup (3.15pm). This is quite a tall order given his inexperience, but he looks a genuine talent on the balance of his form so far, and clearly appreciates plenty of cut in the ground. Although he probably does get ten furlongs, the drop to a straight, well-run mile could easily suit, as he can just be a shade free. 20/1.