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October 17, 2024
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How does Nate Silver predict Biden will fare in the election?


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While Republicans descended upon Milwaukee, Wisconsin this week for the Republican National Convention, President Joe Biden continued to face calls to step down. Questions over his turbulent future heightened after he announced his positive COVID status on Wednesday.

Concern over his age is nothing new, but at the heart of it all, Democrats are unsure if Biden, 81, can win against competitor Donald Trump.

Nate Silver, a statistician and writer, has been reporting on the presidential polling numbers amid the political hysteria, and Thursday, he took to X, formerly known as Twitter, to share an update on Biden’s chances of winning in November.

More: RNC 2024 live updates: Steve Witkoff, Tucker Carlson take the stage; Donald Trump set to speak

Who is Nate Silver?

Silver is a statistician and writer who founded and was the editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, now known as 538, after ABC News acquired the company, a website that publishes political polls.

So, what’s his take on the race between Biden and Trump? Simply put, things are not looking good for Democrats.

After Biden’s interview with George Stephanopoulos, the statistician said it would be best if Biden stepped down in an X post.

Most recently, Silver posted an update to X from his Silver Bulletin blog. He wrote, “Pretty rough polling day for Biden, reversing a slight rebound from earlier this week.”

The chart shows Biden’s chances of winning being much lower than Trump’s from the start, but they have dropped in recent days.

Silver also co-hosts a podcast called Risky Business with Maria Konnikova, where he said, “I don’t think he’s capable of running a normal campaign at all,” in a July 10 episode titled “How to Convince Biden to Quit.” Biden’s only falling further behind, and there’s no way America’s electing him, going by his gut reaction, he continued.

Republicans have sunk their teeth into whispers of the president stepping down, saying they won’t agree to a vice-presidential debate for newly nominated running mate JD Vance because the Democratic ticket is still unclear.



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