If you have been following the 538 election forecast wondering what the heck happened to Nate Silver, it’s the new owners who lost their minds.
As of July 17, the 538 Election Forecast had Biden winning the election. As of July 20, it has Trump winning 51-48 with precisely 270 electoral college votes.
That is a nonsensical, Biden-biased pile of rotting fish.
Why I Don’t Buy 538’s New Election Model
On his new website, Nate Silver explains Why I Don’t Buy 538’s New Election Model
When the Silver Bulletin presidential forecast launched last month, I said I wasn’t interested in prosecuting the “model wars”, meaning having big public debates about forecasting methodology. One reason is that I find these arguments tiresome: I first published an election model in 2008, and it’s been the same debates pretty much ever since. But there’s also a more pragmatic consideration. If I think a model is unsound, I worry about elevating it by giving it even more attention. Because I do believe in probabilities, after all. Joe Biden’s chance of winning another term is hard to forecast because (1) he might still drop out and (2) he’s probably not capable of running the sort of normal campaign the model implicitly assumes he can. Biden’s chances are probably lower than the current 28 percent in the Silver Bulletin forecast, in other words. But they’re certainly not zero. I worry about a news cycle on Nov. 6 when an unsound model is validated because it “won” the model wars based on a sample size of one election.
What also makes this awkward is that the model I’m going to criticize comes from the site I used to work for, 538. I’m sure newsletter readers will know this, but what was formerly the FiveThirtyEight model from 2008-2022 is now the Silver Bulletin model — I retained the IP when I left Disney. But, I’m not sure the rest of the world knows that. (I still sometimes run into people who think FiveThirtyEight is affiliated with the New York Times, which it hasn’t been since 2013.)
Let’s also state the other and more obvious conflicts here: I publish a competing product. And I’m not a fan of the guy 538 hired to develop its new model, G. Elliott Morris.
However, various high-profile reporters have contacted me for comment. And I think I have a professional obligation to speak up. Not all that many people have explored the inner workings of models like these. Moreover, we’re in an unusual circumstance where the models themselves have become part of the debate about what Biden should do. For instance, the 538 model — which showed Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning as of Thursday afternoon — has been cited by Biden defenders like Ron Klain, the former White House Chief of Staff, as a reason that Biden should stay in the race.
Feature or Bug?
I thought the 538 model seemed basically reasonable when it was first published in June, showing the race as a toss-up. But its behavior since the debate — Biden has actually gained ground in their forecast over the past few weeks even though their polling average has moved toward Trump by 2 points! — raises a lot of questions. This may be by design — Morris seems to believe it’s too early to really look at the polls at all. But If my model was behaving like this, I’d be concerned.
Right now, for instance, Biden trails by about 2 points nationally in our polling-based estimate, but our fundamentals forecast says he “should” eventually win the popular vote by roughly 2.5 points. Currently, our model uses roughly a 70/30 blend of the snapshot and the fundamentals.
(-2.0 x 70%) + (2.5 x 30%) = -0.6His model seemingly assigns 85 percent of the weight to the fundamentals. (I’m going to use terms like “seemingly” a lot because of the lack of transparency in what the 538 model is actually doing.) As a principle of model design, it’s almost axiomatic that if you’re blending two or more components into an average, you’ll want to place more weight on the more reliable component. But they’re doing just the opposite.
It also doesn’t explain what’s going on in Wisconsin or in other states like Ohio — where, to repeat, 538 has Biden doing much better in their full forecast than in either the polls or the fundamentals.
The explanation that Morris has given for this discrepancy is jargony and hard to parse. I might do a follow-up post where I try my best, but I’m reluctant to do his work for him. (He claims to be too busy to provide a longer explanation.) So far, what he’s written raises as many questions as it answers.
538 Is Totally Broken
The above Tweet sums up one of Silver’s key points.
There is much more in Silver’s post rebutting the total garbage nature of the new 538. That’s a free link above if you want to read more.
Silver Bulletin Nate Silver
If you want to see a true forecast instead of a pile of total garbage, then check out the Silver Bulletin. (Note: I get nothing out of this. Neither Sliver nor his staff ever answer my emails or respond to Tweets, so don’t expect to ask any questions about anything).
The Big Problem With All of This
The big problem with all of this analysis is most people do not expect Biden to hang on all the way to November.
And if he doesn’t, then you can take all of these numbers and throw them away.
What If Biden Drops Out
The above image is from Manifold Politics as captured by Nate Silver and discussed in a subscriber only post Betting Markets Think Biden Should Quit.
If Harris is the nominee, not much changes (at least from betting odds standpoint), but there is suddenly a 50-50 bet +- if the Democrats were to nominate Gretchen Whitmer.
Whitmer would likely keep the blue wall state of Michigan and if that spilled over into neighboring Wisconsin the election could come down to a single state, Pennsylvania.
This is not that far fetched a scenario.
How Good or Bad Was Trump’s Acceptance Speech?
For discussion of the convention, please see How Good or Bad Was Trump’s Acceptance Speech?
I gave Trump a B+ initially, downgraded slightly to B upon reflection.
But whereas grade B or even D might be good enough to beat Biden, things will change the moment Biden drops out.
Open Convention Is Democrat’s Best Shot
An open convention is clearly the Democrat’s best shot. However, the DNC appears hell bent on rushing the nomination to Biden-Harris and killing the idea.
Democrats in general understand the score. 65 Percent of Democrats Now Want Biden to Drop Out
Donors are withholding funds until Biden drops out. They want an open convention, the DNC doesn’t (See Kamala Hangs Up on Donors, 12 More Democrats Ask Biden Drop Out)
Finally, please note Biden Seeks Supreme Court Term Limits, Medical Debt Cancellation, Rent Controls
Whoever is behind Biden’s campaign has gone completely mad. Is the goal to make Vance and Trump look like centrists?
Whoever is calling the shots for Biden and at the DNC has lost all their marbles.
Instead of pushing for an open convention, the DNC wants what would highly likely be a very losing ticket and possibly a landslide Republican victory.
If you are a Trump supporter you should be praying Biden hangs on long enough to be anointed. Then if Biden drops out, Trump will face Kamala Harris and not Gretchen Whitmer or someone else with a much better chance.