Donald Trump has received a boost from pollster Nate Silver, who suggests the former president should feel more optimistic about the race after Silver’s data analysis showed him gaining slight ground over Kamala Harris.
Silver’s Silver Bulletin presidential model, which tracks polling data and electoral trends, moved 0.3 percentage points in favor of Trump over the past week, signaling a more competitive race as the campaign enters its final weeks.
“Should Trump feel a little better about the race? Sure. Has there been a major change? No,” Silver posted on X (formerly Twitter) when presenting his latest update on Thursday.
Photo by Dave Kotinsky/Getty Images for the 2015 Tribeca Film Festival. Photo by Bill Pugliano/Getty Images
Recent polling data is offering mixed signals, according to Silver, but there have been “more bright spots for Trump than for Harris if you squint.” This shift, according to the pollster, has not necessarily translated into a clear momentum for either candidate but suggests some positive trends for Trump.
The updated forecast reflects slight but notable shifts in Trump’s favor in crucial swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. These states, which played a significant role in Trump’s 2016 victory as well as his loss in 2020, are again shaping up to be critical in determining the outcome of a presidential election.
Silver’s model shows that Trump has gained 0.9 percentage points in Michigan, 0.8 points in Wisconsin and 0.3 points in Pennsylvania over the past week. Silver’s analysis suggests that these movements, though modest, could be a positive sign for Trump as he looks to close the gap with the vice president.
“Sentiment about the race has shifted in a GOP direction, sometimes to the point of outright panic by Democrats, in a way that isn’t really justified by the polling,” Silver wrote on his latest Substack update.
Silver also cautioned that this shift in sentiment might be an overreaction from Democrats, noting that they “have been prone to bouts of panic about the state of the horse race.” He added that this tendency has become even more pronounced in the Trump era.
Silver, known for his work with the poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight before founding Substack’s The Silver Bulletin, called the race between Harris and Trump a “toss-up” in August. This came weeks after he had written in the same newsletter that Trump was certain to win against the then-presumptive Democratic nominee, President Joe Biden.
Silver’s popular vote forecast has shown Harris ahead of Trump by 1 to 2.5 percentage points for most of their campaigning. In modeling the presidential race, Silver runs simulations using state-by-state polling data, accounting for the inherent uncertainty and variability in the polls.
The result is a probabilistic forecast, such as predicting that a candidate has a 70 percent chance of winning if they come out ahead in 70 percent of those simulations.
Silver’s aggregator has also shown Harris leading Trump since its launch at the end of July, with the latest entry showing an average of 49.2 percent for Harris and 46.2 percent for Trump.
However, national aggregators essentially offer a general “pulse check” on the popular vote and do not weigh or consider Electoral College votes, which determine the election. The Oval Office is won by whichever candidate gets 270 Electoral College votes, not whether they win the popular vote.