→ Nate Silver projects Kamala Harris to lose election
Election forecaster Nate Silver has updated his model for the match between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, and it’s not looking great for the likely Democratic nominee.
Nate Silver relaunches his model with Kamala Harris at 38.1% to win the Electoral College and 53.5% to win the popular vote (what a country!). When he retired the Biden-Trump model Biden was down to 27%https://t.co/YRLzamVv4i pic.twitter.com/jYxpEVLNmy
— Jesse Singal (@jessesingal) July 30, 2024
Trump is leading Harris 61-38 in Silver’s probability model for the electoral college, which determines the outcome of the election, while Harris is favoured to win the popular vote by 53-46. While not an optimal outcome for Democrats, it’s a major improvement on last month. When Biden was still on the ticket, his probability of winning was only 27%.
“Stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning”, Silver writes. It’s not over yet.
→ Tobacco ban fuels black market in Britain
The uniparty strikes again. Just as Labour seeks to press ahead with Rishi Sunak’s smoking ban, new data shows that a tobacco black market is ballooning.
According to figures from research company Circana, spending on illegal tobacco in 2023/24 was £5.7 billion — up from £4.2 billion the previous year and £3.5 billion in 2020. As Guido Fawkes notes, that £5.7 billion figure is roughly equivalent to a quarter of the police budget. If Keir Starmer really wants to be tough on crime, maybe he should reconsider the ban. Talk about black holes…
→ Can AI replace your friends?
Artificial intelligence isn’t just coming for your job — it’s also coming for your social life.
Avi Schiffmann, a 21-year-old tech entrepreneur, has released a product called “Friend”, a wearable AI device that records one’s environment and sends texts in response to whatever is going on. An ad shows Friend encouraging a solo hiker, teasing a man who’s losing a video game, and asking a young woman if she’s enjoying her dinner. The users wear the device around their neck, and it lights up when in use, discretion be damned.
introducing friend. not imaginary.
order now at https://t.co/7kGiH5pQVK pic.twitter.com/qU58xNvX5v
— Avi (@AviSchiffmann) July 30, 2024
The message, of course, is that being friends with an AI chatbot is not at all sad, embarrassing, or an obvious cry for help. Will it have the same personality flaws as other AI?