With just two weeks until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris continues to maintain a slim lead over former President Donald Trump.
As of Tuesday, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election dashboard, Harris is up 1.6 points, on average, in national polling. The vice president also seems to be more well liked by Americans. Practically an even number of U.S. citizens hold favorable and unfavorable views of Harris—47.2 percent unfavorable vs. 46.6 percent favorable.
By comparison, Trump’s net favorability rating is in the negatives, with 52.2 percent of Americans holding an unfavorable view of the GOP nominee.
As pollster Nate Silver wrote in a post to his Silver Bulletin blog on Tuesday, “If this election were a popularity contest, Kamala Harris would win.”
But Silver argued in his essay that Harris’ favorability among voters may not be enough to win on November 5. Many election forecasts, including Silver’s, are favoring Trump to win the minimum 270 Electoral College votes, although the gap is extremely close. As of Tuesday, Silver’s forecast gave Trump a 53.1 percent chance of winning a second term, while Harris had a 46.6 percent chance.
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Historically, a candidate’s favorability rating has not translated into election success. As Silver pointed out, when Trump beat then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, the Democratic nominee had a net unfavorability rating of 12.6 points. By comparison, Trump’s unfavorability rating was 21 points. Trump went on to lose the popular vote in his first presidential run but beat Clinton in the Electoral College, 306 to 232.
Silver wrote on Tuesday that Harris and the Democrats have been largely running a campaign on “vibes,” while Trump has stuck to his normal rhetoric.
“Her message is: I’m a likable person, and I’m not Trump, and you’ll just have to trust me to sort out the details,” the pollster wrote. “His is: I’m an a**hole who fights for you, and here’s a bunch of stuff you’ll get if you vote for me.”
Silver said that Harris’ message is likely fueled in part by President Joe Biden‘s unfavorability ratings. The vice president “has a difficult hand to play” by being both the Democratic nominee and a part of the current administration, he said.
“Harris also has some advantages,” Silver continued. “Trump is unpopular. And she’s successfully rebranded from what was once a poor public image. But she’s having more trouble distancing herself from her previous policy positions and the problems of the Biden-Harris administration.
“Maybe running on vibes was the best bet—but the election is a toss-up, and she’d better hope the coin comes up heads,” Silver wrote.
Newsweek reached out to Harris’ campaign via email on Tuesday for comment.
Harris has been repeatedly pressed to take a clearer stance on how her administration would differ from Biden’s. Her campaign has pressed the message that her ticket is a “new way forward,” although she has shied away from offering specific criticisms of the current administration.
In an appearance on Fox News Tuesday morning, Karl Rove, a former chief of staff to President George W. Bush, said Harris “needs to focus on what’s best for her and not worry about hurting [Biden’s] feelings.”
“The candidate has got to find a way to say, ‘I’m my own person, and yes there would be things I would do differently, and let me tell you about the things I’m going to do in the future,'” Rove said. “She needs to be the change candidate [because] if she’s more of the same, she’s going to be defeated.”