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July 18, 2024
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Silver Prices Forecast: Volatility Expected Following Thursday’s CPI Report


Technical Analysis Points to Buyer Presence

Silver is currently testing the 50% retracement level at $31.02, with buyers showing strong interest. The move above the 50-day moving average at $29.76 further indicates buying pressure. However, the market still needs to surpass last week’s high of $31.49 to confirm an upside breakout, potentially putting the 11-year high of $32.52 in focus.

In his testimony to Congress, Powell maintained a cautious stance while acknowledging improved inflation data. His comments suggest that the case for interest rate cuts is strengthening, which typically supports non-yielding assets like silver. StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell noted that Powell’s remarks were “giving at least an amber light towards rate cuts sooner than later.”

Market Eyes Critical CPI Data

Traders are now focused on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due Thursday. The report is expected to show headline prices rose 0.1% month-on-month, with core prices gaining 0.2%. Annual gains are projected at 3.1% and 3.4%, respectively. This data will be crucial in shaping expectations for future Fed policy decisions.

ETF Inflows Signal Bullish Sentiment

The World Gold Council reported that global physically backed gold exchange-traded funds saw inflows for the second consecutive month in June. This development is perceived as bullish for silver, given the correlation between the two precious metals.

Market Forecast

The combination of Powell’s dovish hints, technical buying pressure, and positive ETF flows paints a bullish short-term outlook for silver. However, traders should remain cautious ahead of the CPI release, as it could significantly impact market direction. A lower-than-expected inflation print could further boost silver prices, potentially pushing the metal towards its recent highs.

Technical Analysis



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