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November 9, 2024
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Silver

Silver (XAG) Forecast: Will PCE Inflation Surprise Fuel Silver’s Next Breakout?


Weekly Silver (XAG/USD)

For the week, silver’s failure to surpass the multi-year high resistance of $35.40 prompted a wave of selling that pushed it toward support levels. Key support sits around former tops at $32.52 and $31.76, with swing bottom support lower at $30.12. These levels will be closely watched as traders gauge whether silver can consolidate and attempt another move higher or if additional profit-taking will trigger further declines​.

Next Week’s Outlook: Data-Driven Volatility Expected

The week ahead brings several high-impact U.S. economic reports, including GDP, the core PCE deflator, and Non-Farm Payrolls. With expectations of 3% GDP growth and elevated inflation pressures, these metrics will guide expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next rate moves. A robust GDP print could strengthen the dollar and pressurize silver. Conversely, if inflation surprises to the upside, safe-haven flows may renew, especially if labor data indicates economic vulnerabilities​​.

Silver faces potential downside in the short term, especially if support around $32.52 fails, but central bank demand and geopolitical factors remain supportive over the longer term. The dollar and Treasury yields will likely influence immediate price action, with silver positioned to rally if gold holds its momentum and inflation data supports a dovish shift from the Fed. Expect volatility around the key economic releases, with the $35.40 level as a pivotal marker for any bullish breakout.



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