“Bitcoin exhibited strength against a hawkish CPI report and strong inflation data seeing only a retracement back down to $67,000 following the fed minutes announcement,” Semir Gabeljic, director of Capital Formation at Pythagoras Investments, said in an email note. “[Still] The drop of -2% from Monday’s retest of $73,000 showcases risk assets, including BTC, pricing in two rate cuts instead of three for the remainder of 2024.”
Twenty-six percent of bettors have put money on there being one cut, while 28% believe there will be two cuts, and 21% bet on no cuts at all.
Meanwhile, Jun-Young Heo, a derivative trader at Singapore-based Presto, pointed out that the market recovered quickly after the higher-than-expected CPI announcement compared to gold or the S&P 500 index.
The implied volatility of options expiring on April 26th is still trading at a premium while recent historical volatility is still trending down, Heo noted.
On-chain data shows that outflow from GBTC is at $18 million, which is the lowest since the launch of the U.S. bitcoin ETFs.
“But we need to see a few more dates to find out whether GBTC outflows are becoming negligible amount since it has a higher fee than any other ETFs,” Heo added.