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Bitcoin continues to captivate the markets. But what’s new on the front of the most famous cryptocurrency? Two key indicators seem to have cooled off, suggesting that the current calm might actually foretell an impending financial storm. Let’s take a closer look at why this lull could, against all odds, indicate an upcoming surge.
Bitcoin and the Mysterious Funding Rate
The bitcoin funding rate acts as a compass for traders, reflecting the overall sentiment of the market. Usually, a positive rate indicates investor optimism anticipating a price increase.
However, recently, this rate briefly dipped into the negative before stabilizing at a low level. For insiders, this phenomenon is seen not as a red flag, but rather as a consolidation before the next post-halving flight.
When the rate is low, it can indicate that long positions on bitcoin no longer dominate as much, leaving room for a more neutral balance between bulls and bears.
This tension between the two can very well be the prelude to an upward movement, like a catapult being armed before launching.
Currently, the open interest-weighted rate is around 0.0091%. This technical data, although enigmatic for the layman, is actually a cry from the market, whispering in the ears of connoisseurs that something is brewing in the shadows.
The Enigmatic Annualized Basis Rate
At the same time, the annualized basis rate, another market barometer, has also risen to an intriguing level.
This rate compares the cost of bitcoin futures contracts with its spot price. A rate comfortably nestled in a neutral range often indicates a balanced market, yet ready to tip over.
A rate oscillating between 5 and 10% may seem insignificant, but it actually constitutes an Ariadne’s thread that savvy traders follow to anticipate market movements. Climbing above this threshold could well be the spark of a price surge.
With rates currently stable, the scene seems to be set for a dramatic rise as Will reminds us. Like an actor taking a dramatic pause before his final monologue, bitcoin might just be catching its breath before captivating its audience once again.
What are the implications for investors and traders? The current stability of rates could be a cunning disguise, a mask behind which bitcoin is preparing its next big act.
Investors, keep your eyes glued to these indicators, as they might well tell you the ideal time to act. Do not let the seeming calm lull you into a false sense of security; the crypto market is anything but predictable.
A sudden fluctuation in these rates could be the signal that bitcoin is ready to break out of its lethargy and soar to new heights with Trump’s reelection.
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Fasciné par le bitcoin depuis 2017, Evariste n’a cessé de se documenter sur le sujet. Si son premier intérêt s’est porté sur le trading, il essaie désormais activement d’appréhender toutes les avancées centrées sur les cryptomonnaies. En tant que rédacteur, il aspire à fournir en permanence un travail de haute qualité qui reflète l’état du secteur dans son ensemble.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.