While Dundee Precious Metals Inc. (TSE:DPM) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn’t had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 19% in the last quarter. But that scarcely detracts from the really solid long term returns generated by the company over five years. It’s fair to say most would be happy with 131% the gain in that time. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s cheap now.
With that in mind, it’s worth seeing if the company’s underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the last half decade, Dundee Precious Metals became profitable. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it’s worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. Indeed, the Dundee Precious Metals share price has gained 30% in three years. During the same period, EPS grew by 77% each year. This EPS growth is higher than the 9% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 4.52.
The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It is of course excellent to see how Dundee Precious Metals has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. If you are thinking of buying or selling Dundee Precious Metals stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Dundee Precious Metals, it has a TSR of 143% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 0.03% in the twelve months, Dundee Precious Metals shareholders did even worse, losing 15% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there’s a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn’t be so upset, since they would have made 19%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 2 warning signs with Dundee Precious Metals , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
But note: Dundee Precious Metals may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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