Payong predicted that the situation in the auto industry could prompt the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) to reduce its auto manufacturing target this year from 1.9 million to 1.85 million vehicles when it meets at the end of this month. The reduction will likely come from the domestic market with 0.7 million vehicles, while production for export will remain the same at 1.15 million vehicles, he said.
The JSCCIB also acknowledged that total property transfers in the first four months of this year dropped by 11.8% for houses and 7.4% for condominiums.
The meeting agreed that the main factors behind this are rising interest rates and banks using stricter loan criteria under the Bank of Thailand’s responsible lending measures, which aim to curb household debt.
The JSCCIB predicted that the transfer of property in the Bangkok metropolitan area this year, which is accountable for 60-70% of the whole country, would drop by 9.3% year on year to a total value of 576 billion baht. Of this number, 365 billion baht would come from houses, a drop of 8.7% year on year, and 211 billion baht from condominiums, down by 10.3% year on year.
The meeting also slightly adjusted downwards its prediction on export expansion this year from 0.8-1.5% to 0.5-1.5%, in line with the stagnation of global trading, geopolitical tensions and the possibility that freight charges could be raised by as much as 95%.
After considering the current economic situation in the past six months, the JSCCIB agreed to adjust its estimation for GDP expansion this year to 2.2-2.7%, with 0.5-1% inflation.
“The JSCCIB will closely monitor factors that could affect the global and domestic economy for the rest of the year and we will adjust our predictions accordingly,” said Payong.