New analysis by the Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP) and the Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (Defra) has identified capacity gaps in the UK’s recycling infrastructure that will require investment to meet the government’s circular economy ambitions and handle increased material volumes from upcoming packaging reforms.
The ‘Recycling Infrastructure Capacity Analysis’ report, published as the first part of the government’s wider waste infrastructure analysis work, maps out projected capacity needs against expected waste volumes through to 2035 across key material streams.
Mary Creagh, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State (Minister for Nature), emphasised the report’s strategic importance: “This publication is the first part of our work to unlock investment necessary to support our circular economy ambitions and is intended to act as a visual aid to forecast capacity investment opportunities for end destination process for recyclable materials.”
Recycling capacity gaps
The report uses central tonnage estimates from impact assessment modelling of the upcoming packaging policies, with food and garden waste data covering England and packaging data encompassing the entire UK. Export packaging data is taken from the National Packaging Waste Database (NPWD).
The analysis identifies the forecasted investment opportunities for several material streams by 2035, if exports remain the same:
- Plastic packaging processing capacity needs an additional 324kt per year
- Paper and board packaging requires 1.7Mt
- Glass packaging requires 172kt
- Metal packaging needs 203kt
- Anaerobic digestion facilities require 1.375Mt, if Closed Composting facilities cannot provide an extra capacity outlet
The report predicts these gaps will emerge as new policies drive increased recycling rates. By 2035, plastic packaging available for reprocessing is forecast to grow by 52 per cent, paper/board by 39 per cent, glass by 22 per cent, and metal by 24 per cent compared to 2020 levels. Notably, the analysis does not cover the amount of materials sorting (MRF) capacity the UK currently has and the investment likely to handle the projected tonnages of mixed recycling.
Garden waste is only projected to increase by 4 per cent, and therefore does not represent a significant investment opportunity.
The report also notes that plastic packaging investment opportunities may be affected by a proposed ban on the export of plastic waste to non-EU, non-OECD countries.
How will policy changes impact recycling rates?
The introduction of Simpler Recycling, a Deposit Return Scheme (DRS), and Extended Producer Responsibility for packaging (pEPR) is expected to drive these projected increases.
Explaining the impact of Defra’s packaging reforms, Creagh said: “ There will be more resources circulating in our economy, reducing the need to rely on imports or extracting finite raw materials. Recycling infrastructure will create jobs for working people, encourage investment across the country, and support our first steps towards a circular economy.”
While the analysis identifies clear opportunities, it also acknowledges existing challenges stating that further work is ongoing to identify how to support investment, investors, and recyclers.
The report forms part of a broader government strategy to transition to a circular economy, and is supported by the newly formed Circular Economy Taskforce.
Creagh concludes: “This Recycling Infrastructure Capacity Analysis creates a framework from which central government will build genuine collaboration with industry and local authorities, to develop our recycling capacity and pursue a circular economy. Working together, we will drive economic growth and bring positive change to our communities and the environment.”