Iranian leaders have increased their belligerent rhetoric following the 1 October attack in which the Islamic Republic fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles on Israel. Codenamed “True Promise”, the attack was the second direct Iranian action since April, and indicates Tehran’s growing aggressiveness, which poses a significant threat in its neighbourhood. As discussions of a possible retaliation by Israel continue, the media mention Iranian oil refineries among the targets that might be hit. Israeli Defence minister Yoav Gallant stated that the upcoming retaliation against Iran’s missile attacks will be “ lethal and surprising”. Meanwhile, IRGC- linked social media accounts have already spread reports that Tehran has warned the United States that in the event of action against Iranian oil refineries, the Islamic Republic will target oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait. According to a Reuters report, Iran also warned the Gulf Arab states that any use of their airspace or military bases to target Iran will be unacceptable and threatened to respond if that happens.
IRAN’S STRATEGY
Iran’s reference to Azerbaijan as a potential target, should Israel attack Iranian oil refineries, is an indication of the Islamic Republic’s growing threat to critical energy infrastructure not only in the Middle East, but also in the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea basin region. Azerbaijan supplies 40 per cent of Israel’s energy needs and Azerbaijan’s oil and gas infrastructure is the backbone of its independence in the geopolitically tense region. Not only does Azerbaijan meet nearly 40 per cent of Israel’s demand for crude oil, Azerbaijan’s state energy giant SOCAR, alongside British Petroleum and Israel’s NewMed, was awarded a licence to explore an area to the north of Israel’s Leviathan gas field in the Eastern Mediterranean. The strong bilateral and multifaceted relations between Israel and Azerbaijan have long been a primary concern for the Iranian establishment. In the midst of the anticipated Israeli retaliation against the Iranian ballistic missile attacks, the Iranian media continue to make unsubstantiated claims about supposed secret Israeli military bases in Azerbaijan with a ridiculous accusation that Azerbaijan is one of the origins of sabotage against the Islamic Republic. Talking about possible Israeli retaliation against Iranian oil facilities, Iranian diplomat Abbas Mousavi falsely claimed in an interview to Tejarat News website that Israel had deployed many planes to Azerbaijan.
In fact, since Hamas launched the brutal terrorist attacks against Israel in October 2023, Iran’s main goal has been to consolidate the members of the Organisation of Islamic States and achieve an economic blockade as well as diplomatic isolation of Israel. Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei repeatedly called on Arab and Muslim countries to impose an oil embargo on Israel. Iranian officials have frequently repeated similar calls showing Tehran’s agenda behind the Hamas attacks, which aimed to disrupt economic, political and diplomatic relations between the state of Israel and Muslim-majority nations. Iran’s multidimensional strategy behind the Hamas attacks was based on several ambitious goals including preventing possible normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia and other Arab states, derailment of the Abraham Accords, preventing efforts to improve strained Turkish-Israeli ties and trying to inflict economic and diplomatic damage on Israel-Azerbaijan strategic ties. Iran’s strategy seeks to achieve multiple goals simultaneously in both the Middle East and South Caucasus.
Iranian media outlets launched coordinated propaganda attacks against Turkey and Azerbaijan for supplying crude oil to Israel via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline since the Hamas terrorist attacks and start of the subsequent war in Gaza. Iran-inspired, pro-Hamas Islamist and leftist circles in Turkey staged several demonstrations and vandalised Azerbaijani oil company SOCAR’s offices in Istanbul repeatedly in an attempt to halt oil exports. Considering the huge influence of the Muslim Brotherhood within Turkey, the country has become a comfortable space for Iranian propaganda and hybrid activities covered by so- called Islamic narratives. Ironically, the fact that Iran has been one of the major energy suppliers of Armenia and supplied the formerly Armenia-occupied Karabakh region of Azerbaijan for decades did not receive a similar response from Islamist or leftist circles in Turkey.
COERCIVE ACTIONS
Iran’s military threats against Azerbaijan increased from the end of the Second Karabakh War when the balance of power in the South Caucasus shifted in Baku’s favour. Iran conducted several military drills near the Azerbaijani border, putting on a show of force against the geopolitical changes in the region. In late September and early October 2021 Iran suddenly conducted military drills near Azerbaijan’s borders. An Iranian MFA spokesman described the exercises as a “sovereign right”, saying, “Iran will not tolerate the presence of the Zionist regime” near its borders. Iran made another military provocation a year later in October 2022 when Tehran laid pontoon bridges across the Araz river near the Azerbaijani border and crossed the river as part of war games. In March 2023, an Iranian air force fighter jet violated Azerbaijan’s air space. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry summoned Iran’s ambassador, and the Azerbaijani Defence and Foreign Ministries issued a joint statement condemning the incursion.
When Israel liquidated Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in the IRGC Quds force, in the Syrian capital Damascus in April 2024, Iranian MP Jalal Rashidi Kochi, in a post on his official X account, called for strikes on an Israeli embassy in the region, preferably in Azerbaijan. Iranian attempts to target the Israeli embassy and ambassadors in Baku were also foiled on many occasions over the years; the most recent reported attempt involved the arrest of an Afghan national in July 2023.
Recently Iran has enhanced its naval capabilities in the Caspian Sea and increased its naval drills in the Caspian, including joint drills with Russia.
IRAN’S MISSILE AND CYBER CAPABILITIES
Iran possesses numerous capabilities to threaten critical infrastructure including energy and power in the region. Among them Tehran’s ballistic missiles and cyber tools are the key components. Iran maintains the largest ballistic and cruise missile force in the Middle East, capable of reaching 2,500 km from its borders. Moreover, these capabilities combined with Iran’s drone arsenal, can overwhelm any missile defence systems. Iran’s missile attacks against Saudi oil facilities in 2019 were conducted by a combination of drones and cruise missiles.
Iran has improved its offensive cyber capabilities too and is capable of causing localised and temporary disruption to corporate networks for days or weeks. Drilling oil wells, pumping oil and loading fuel are processes where electronically monitored cyber attacks can cause significant disruptions. According to an FBI report released in August 2024, Iran exploited computer networks, making intrusions and enabling the theft of sensitive technical data from organisations in Israel and Azerbaijan. In July, cyber security firm Check Point reported that an Iranian hacker group named MuddyWater, affiliated with Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), had increased its cyber activities against targets in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Portugal.
SECURING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Overall, considering Azerbaijan’s key role in the energy security of vital US allies such as the EU, Israel and Turkey, and its significant help in supplying energy to US-friendly states Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, the incoming administration needs to reverse the shortsighted Biden State Department’s decision not to waive Section 907 to the Freedom Support Act, banning US aid to the Azerbaijani government, which damages US interests in the South Caucasus. It is in the interest of the US and Azerbaijan to expand their military and technical partnership to secure critical infrastructure in the region.