Softer US labor data has eased rate hike bets, giving gold a fresh rally as investors await Fed minutes and new signals from Fed chair Kevin Warsh.
On July 6, 2026, gold traded near a two-week high after U.S. data for the previous week showed a somewhat softer-than-expected labor market development, which partly tempered expectations for further Fed steps.
Key facts
Spot gold was trading at around $4,175.02 per ounce as of 00:28 GMT, after last week the metal posted a gain of more than 2% following four weeks of declines. August gold futures rose about 1.5% and were trading around $4,186.80 per ounce.
Thursday’s data showed a substantial slowdown in U.S. payroll growth in June, and revisions lower than the previous two months indicated a cooling labor market, prompting financial markets to reassess expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike.
According to CME FedWatch, the market now prices in about a 55% probability of a rate hike in September, down from over 60% before the data release.
It is noted that lower interest rates typically support gold, since it does not yield income.
Also in focus are the anticipated releases of the Fed meeting minutes from June 16–17 and the first steps of Kevin Warsh in the role of Fed chair, which will be in investors’ spotlight over the week.
According to JPMorgan, demand for gold from key sectors will not be as strong as expected, which will cap gold price gains this year to around $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and $4,500 per ounce in the fourth.
Physical demand for gold in India fell on Friday after a noticeable rebound earlier in the week, while demand in China rose slightly.
In other metals, silver continued to rise, up for the fifth straight session and trading around $62.48 per ounce; platinum gained about 0.4% to $1,645.05 per ounce, palladium rose 0.1% to $1,275.18 per ounce. Both metals maintained a fourth straight session of gains.
Overall, gold price movements depend on U.S. monetary policy, and investors are closely watching the regulator’s next moves and economic data.
Conclusion
The gold market remains sensitive to expectations for Fed rate moves: if data show further easing of inflation pressures and employment growth remains moderate, gold could maintain its high momentum. However, further gains will depend on the pace of changes in monetary policy and the overall economic trends.