The TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity)
infrastructure project could provide a significant long-term boost
to Armenia’s economy, according to a new report by Fitch
Ratings.
AzerNEWS reports that the international credit
rating agency said that several major infrastructure investment
projects, including TRIPP, have the potential to strengthen
Armenia’s long-term economic growth prospects.
“A number of large infrastructure investment projects, including
the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP),
could further enhance long-term economic growth prospects,” Fitch
said in its report.
Fitch analysts also noted that the U.S.-backed peace initiative
between Armenia and Azerbaijan has substantially reduced the risk
of military escalation in the near term. However, the agency
cautioned that uncertainty remains over the successful completion
of the peace process, including the possibility of a constitutional
referendum in Armenia.
The report also warned that escalating diplomatic tensions with
Russia continue to pose risks to Armenia’s economy, particularly
given the country’s heavy reliance on Russian energy resources.
According to Fitch, Russia remains Armenia’s largest trading
partner and supplies more than 80 percent of the country’s imported
natural gas under preferential terms.
The agency noted that 35 percent of Armenia’s exports are
destined for Russia. In recent months, Moscow has imposed
restrictions on the import and transit of Armenian food products
and has threatened to suspend preferential energy supplies and halt
trade in rough diamonds in response to Yerevan’s policy of closer
integration with the European Union.
Because natural gas accounts for 61 percent of Armenia’s energy
consumption, any disruption in supplies or increase in gas prices
could negatively affect the country’s macroeconomic performance,
fiscal position, and external balances, Fitch said.
The agency forecasts that Armenia’s average inflation rate will
reach 4.4 percent in 2026 before gradually returning to the Central
Bank of Armenia’s 3 percent target.
Fitch noted that inflationary pressures had already begun to
build before the outbreak of the conflict in Iran, driven by rising
food prices, higher service costs, and increasing healthcare
expenditures. At the same time, the agency believes that Russia’s
import restrictions could increase the domestic supply of certain
goods, helping to ease inflationary pressures.
Fitch also expects the Central Bank of Armenia to temporarily
raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.75
percent.
On August 8, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in the presence of the U.S.
President, signed a joint declaration in Washington aimed at
restoring regional connectivity. The document provides for the
opening of the Zangezur Corridor, referred to in the agreement as
the Trump Route, while the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and
Armenia also initialed the Agreement on Peace and Interstate
Relations.
Earlier, in January 2026, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat
Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met in Washington
to unveil the framework for implementing the TRIPP project.
According to their joint statement, Armenia intends to approve
and support the establishment of the TRIPP Development Company,
which will oversee the implementation of the project. The company
is expected to receive the right to develop and operate the project
for an initial period of 49 years. Under the proposed ownership
structure, Yerevan plans to offer 74 percent of the company’s
shares to Washington while retaining the remaining 26 percent.