High volatility with an upward trend towards $2500, driven by global rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold as a safe haven remains in focus.
- Gold markets are likely to be very noisy during the trading month of April, as we have a lot of different things going on.
- After all, this is not a market that operates in a vacuum, so it does make certain medicines that we will continue to see a lot of volatility and even more so in the sense that we have a lot of uncertainty.
- The market of course is one of the people will run to in times of uncertainty, but at the same time, a lot of people are out there wondering whether or not we have seen the highs?
To answer that question very quickly, I will say no, we have not. The market is likely to continue going higher in the month of April, and at this point in time I really don’t see anything keeping gold from reaching the $2500 level over the longer term. Will it happen in April? I’m not sure, but it’s definitely in the realm of possibility as we have seen so much in the way of upward momentum.
When I think about what’s going on in the world, central banks around the world cutting rates of course will have a major influence on gold markets as shrinking interest rates makes it more attractive to actually hold physical metal instead of electronic paper. Furthermore, there are massive amounts of geopolitical risks out there that you need to pay close attention to, and therefore gold could end up being a safe haven from war and political crises. Beyond that, it’s probably worth pointing out at this juncture that central banks around the world continue to buy gold, so there’s already a bit of an automatic bid underneath the market.
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At this point, the gold market most certainly has shown itself to be bullish during the month of March, but most of the month was actually spent grinding away and trying to rally. It’s interesting that we continue to struggle with the $2200 region, but I do think that eventually it gives way, and buyers start to push gold much higher. The $2500 level is the next psychologically important figure.
The $2075 level underneath is the Florida market, assuming that we can even get to that point. The $2150 level underneath the recent consolidation is the first massive support level that I am watching in this market. Regardless, I think you continue to see a lot of “buy on the dips” attitude here.
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