Gold has rebounded 13% over the past month, trading at $4,628 per ounce on August 26, at its most overbought level since January’s all-time high. With the precious metal on track for the largest monthly green candle since September 1999, analysts have been revising their gold price predictions for the end of 2026.
Notably, several financial institutions and banks have recently issued updated forecasts for gold, with many maintaining a positive outlook for the precious metal due to continued support from central-bank purchases, interest-rate trends, and persistent global economic risks. However, some have also acknowledged that the rally is running faster than expected and that volatility is likely to remain elevated.
Gold price 1-month chart. Source: TradingView
Precius metal analyst sets gold’s roadmap toward $5,000
For instance, Bernard Dahdah, precious metals analyst at Natixis, has argued that gold prices appear to be back on track toward $5,000 an ounce after months of correction.
On Tuesday, August 25, Dahdah said the latest rally began in early August as weaker economic data prompted markets to reassess interest-rate expectations. According to the analyst, while markets have already priced in at least two rate hikes, expectations have nonetheless shifted, with traders now pricing in just one rate cut in December.
Dahdan likewise mentioned the U.S. Treasury’s plans to double its purchases of 10- and 30-year bonds to $4 billion, as U.S. government debt surpassed $40 trillion. In relation to this plan, he said, concerns over the impact of elevated long-term yields on mortgage and real estate markets have increased demand for gold as a hedge against market instability.
Dahdah thus raised his year-end gold price forecast to $5,000 an ounce, up from his previous target of $4,600.
Banks set a new gold price target 2026
As mentioned, some major banks have also issued new gold predictions. Citigroup, for example, raised its zero-to-three-month gold price target to $4,800 an ounce on August 24, while its 12-month target is $5,000.
Similarly, Morgan Stanley said on August 20 that gold has reached its fourth-quarter target ahead of schedule and expects prices to rise above $5,000 an ounce in 2027, although it warned that the rally is likely to remain volatile.
“Gold has reached our Q4 forecast of $4,450/oz faster than expected… We see a path to >$5,000/oz in 2027 but with scope for volatility too,” analyst Amy Gower wrote.
The bank also noted that gold has begun to decouple from long-term real yields. Notably, the metal rose in early August even as long-dated yields remained broadly flat. According to Morgan Stanley, gold thus ‘appears to be pricing the fiscal concerns behind higher yields more than the yield level itself.’
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