Bitcoin Cash just posted its biggest daily gain in six weeks, crushing Bitcoin’s returns for the month, but the catalyst behind the surge cuts both ways and could just as easily trigger a sharp reversal.
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Bitcoin Cash (CRYPTO: BCH) has gained 18.3% over the past month, significantly outperforming Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), which rose only 6.5%. This performance raises an intriguing question for investors: in the Bitcoin Cash vs. Bitcoin comparison, can BCH maintain its lead? Currently, Bitcoin Cash is valued at around $275.
Much of BCH’s recent surge can be attributed to a remarkable trading session on September 22, 2026, when it jumped from $267 to $345—an astonishing 29% increase and its biggest daily gain in six weeks.
However, BCH has declined 13.2% in the last two weeks. It remains 53.9% lower for the year and is still trading 92.7% below its 2017 all-time high. So what drove BCH’s growth, and can it sustain its advantage over Bitcoin?
CME’s Futures Announcement Boosted BCH
Bitcoin Cash’s surge coincided with CME Group’s (NASDAQ: CME | CME Price Prediction) September 22 announcement that it plans to introduce Bitcoin Cash futures on October 19, pending regulatory approval. A futures contract is essentially an agreement to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a future date. CME’s offerings will include a standard contract size of 250 BCH and a micro contract size of 25 BCH.
On the day of the announcement, BCH posted a significant trading session, peaking at $366 on September 23, the highest price in six weeks, before closing at $337. Our analysis of the past month found the CME announcement to be the only event that matches the timing of this price surge.
How Can Futures Increase BCH’s Value Before They Launch?
Futures on a regulated U.S. exchange offer price exposure to institutional investors who may not be able to directly hold cryptocurrencies, such as some pension funds. This anticipation often leads traders to buy BCH ahead of expected demand, hoping to profit when new investors enter the market—a practice commonly called buying the rumor.
However, demand on launch day can sometimes be underwhelming. For example, when CME launched Ether futures in February 2021, traders traded only 388 contracts on the first day. Additionally, futures give short sellers—who profit when asset prices fall—a regulated way to take positions without physically borrowing the coins.
For funds already holding BCH, these futures contracts can serve as a hedge, allowing them to offset potential price drops. Arbitrage desks can also profit from price differences by buying spot BCH and selling futures, effectively balancing their trades. Giovanni Vicioso, CME’s global head of cryptocurrency products at the time of the announcement, described these futures as tools designed to help investors manage the evolving risks associated with digital assets.
BCH Has Given Back Much of Its Gains
Despite the initial excitement, BCH has been declining steadily since its September peak. It closed at $306 on September 30 and fell to $271 by October 8, then rebounded slightly to $278 on October 15. Support has been established around the $256 level—about 6.8% below the current price—while resistance has formed between $280 and $284, with higher ceilings around $347 to $366, where the September rally faced selling pressure.
In recent weeks, trading activity has diminished. BCH saw its highest volume on September 22 and 23, but daily volumes have decreased through October as prices fell. A rally coupled with shrinking volume often signals a lack of fresh buying interest.
Bitcoin Had a Smoother Month Because Its Futures Already Trade
In contrast, Bitcoin’s price increased steadily from around $76,349 on September 17 to approximately $81,545 on October 17, remaining below its 2025 peak of $126,080. Since CME already offers futures for Bitcoin, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), along with a newer crypto index, no new futures product stimulated additional buying.
However, in the short term, BCH and Bitcoin still move in tandem. Both experienced declines late on October 17, with BCH dropping to $270 and Bitcoin falling to $80,700, before partially recovering. This decline indicates that BCH’s earlier independence from Bitcoin may have been temporary, similar to past instances where altcoins outperformed Bitcoin before eventually aligning with its trends.
Will Bitcoin Cash Maintain Its Lead After CME Futures Launch?
Looking ahead, BCH is unlikely to consistently outperform Bitcoin. BCH’s recent surge is primarily tied to the upcoming CME futures launch, which may face delays due to regulatory reviews. If the launch is delayed, BCH could lose the momentum behind its recent gains. Even if the launch proceeds on schedule, it may primarily attract hedgers and short sellers rather than a wave of new investors.
Nevertheless, if new funds start flowing in because of the futures, BCH might extend its lead. The first test of this dynamic will come the week after the anticipated futures launch.
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