Gold remains in a fragile rebound
Gold has come under pressure from oil price volatility, rising interest rates and a stronger dollar, all of which have tightened financial conditions. Since mid-March, gold has traded in a volatile range after falling from about $5,450 to $4,100.
It has since recovered part of that decline, climbing back towards $4,700-$4,800, but so far the move looks little more than a 50% retracement of the fall that began on 2 March.
Gold with key retracement levels, chart extracted from TradingView on 13 April 2026.
Gold may now have formed a bear flag pattern and, more importantly, may have broken below it after falling through the uptrend that began on 23 March. If that interpretation is correct, it would suggest gold could fall materially in the coming days and weeks. The pattern itself suggests gold may fall below $4,000 if it plays out to completion.
The trend in the relative strength index (RSI) also suggests gold may be heading lower. The RSI peaked in late January and has been trending lower since then, an important sign that the overall trend in gold may have shifted from bullish to bearish.
Gold bear flag and relative strength index, chart extracted from TradingView on 13 April 2026.
It is also worth noting that the CBOE Gold Volatility Index has fallen to about 30.5. This remains an important indicator to monitor. If implied volatility in gold continues to fall, it would help confirm any bearish move in the spot gold price.
CBOE Gold Volatility Index, chart extracted from TradingView on 13 April 2026.
