Despite the monthlong minor trend climb from $61.00, the rally appears to be stalling. This doesn’t suggest the end of the move, but rather a reset. Traders are clearly telling us they have no reason to take out offers and buy strength. And with the 200-day moving average at $61.49 guiding the uptrend, I still think we’re in buy the dip mode.
So if traders don’t want to take out the 50-day MA to extend the rally, then start watching for the dip. Our nearest short-term support zone at $72.03 to $69.43 may offer an attractive opportunity if tested. Otherwise, you can keep banging your head playing for a breakout above the 50-day MA or the minor swing top at $83.06.
It’s the classic set-up the market keeps playing with us that is buy strength or buy weakness. With the 200-day MA our long-term anchor, I’m not giving up on the long-side, just looking for an opportunity to present itself with a solid exit strategy if I’m wrong. I’m not concerned about where it can go, but in these chopping conditions, I want to know my exit first.
Ceasefire Extension Gave Silver a Bid
Trump extended the ceasefire and liquidation pressure came off. That’s what moved silver early in the session. When traders aren’t being forced to sell to cover margin calls, precious metals find buyers fast. Silver followed Spot Gold (XAUUSD) and the broader risk rally higher and held onto modest gains through most of the day.