On the technicals, ANZ note the recent high around $2,195 as resistance:
- a break of this resistance targets above $2,200
ANZ are wary of a correction first through, “a healthy price correction looks in the offing:”, citing:
- RSI suggests an overbought level
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If a correction starts, the price could fall back to the key support level of $2,100
Further ahead, and more leaning fundamental than technical.
Bullish factors include:
- “While speculators have increased their bullish bets recently, positions are not matching the intensity of the latest price rally,”
- “Moreover, disinvestment in gold-backed Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has been continuing. A lean level of investment in gold should be seen as a potential driver. This not only limits scope for a heavy liquidation but also leaves ample room for fresh buying.”
- rising uncertainties on the economic outlook and geopolitics
- central banks continue to buy
ANZ cautions that higher prices could weigh on physical demand