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June 19, 2024
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EUR/USD, USD/JPY, S&P 500, Gold – Forecast and Key Technical Levels Ahead

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EUR/USD retreated on Thursday but managed to stay above its 200-day simple moving average at 1.0840. For sentiment around the euro to improve, this floor must hold; failure to do so could result in a pullback towards 1.0770. On further weakness, all eyes will be on the 1.0700 handle.

On the flip side, if bulls stage a comeback and trigger a reversal to the upside, resistance extends from 1.0910 to 1.0930. If history is any guide, prices could be rejected from this technical area on a retest; however, a successful breakout could open the door to a rally toward 1.1020.


EUR/USD Chart Prepared Using TradingView

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USD/JPY rallied earlier in the week, but its bullish momentum faded on Thursday, paving the way for some directionless price action. With the pair approaching overbought levels, it wouldn’t surprise to see some consolidation or even a small pullback in the coming days.

In the event of a bearish reversal, support appears at 147.25, around the 100-day simple moving average. Further losses from this point onward could expose 146.00. On the other hand, if the exchange rate reaccelerates to the upside and breaks above 149.00, a retest of the psychological 150.00 level could be around the corner.


USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView

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Gold pivoted higher on Thursday, pushing past $2,010 and recapturing its 50-day simple moving average, a positive signal for the precious metals. If the recovery extends in the days ahead, technical resistance emerges at $2,045-$2,050, followed by $2,085.

Conversely, if sellers return and rekindle bearish pressure, traders should keep a close eye on the $2,010 area, bearing in mind that a move below it could pave the way for a descent towards $1,990 and $1,975 thereafter. If weakness persists, XAU/USD may gravitate towards its 200-day simple moving average.


Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView

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After a subdued performance earlier in the week, the S&P 500 rallied on Thursday, reclaiming the 4,800 level in the process. Despite this turnaround, the emergence of a double-top pattern on the daily chart continues to be a cause for concern for the bullish camp.

A double top is a bearish technical formation, characterized by two analogous peaks with a valley in between. The setup is validated once prices complete their “M”-like shape and breach the support level established by the intermediate trough, known as the neckline.

Quantifying the potential magnitude of the downward retracement following confirmation involves vertically projecting the double top’s height from the break point. In the case of the S&P 500, the neckline is identified at 4,700. This means a move below this area could usher in a pullback towards 4,550.

Although traders should exercise caution, it is important to note that the double top would be negated if the S&P 500 prints a higher high and sets a new record. This scenario could pave the way for a climb towards 4,900.


S&P 500 Chart Created Using TradingView

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